No surprises in ‘quiet’ WASDE
There were no surprises in the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates for the 2025-26 update released March 10, with wheat, corn and soybean domestic ending stocks remaining unchanged. The report highlighted higher global corn stocks, increased United States soybean crush/imports, and increased global cotton production.
The season-average farm price for wheat was up $0.05 per bushel to $4.95 a bushel on National Agricultural Statistics Service prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. The 2025-26 global outlook this month projected larger supplies and consumption but reduced trade and ending stocks.
Supplies rose by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million tons, mainly on increased wheat output for Ukraine and Kazakhstan that was partly offset by lower production for Australia, which was down by 1 million tons, with the ABARES report showing a nearly complete harvest at 36 million tons– its third highest on record. Global wheat consumption was raised by 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million tons, primarily on higher feed and residual use for the European Union.
World trade rose 0.2 million tons to 222.2 million tons, with larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan that were mostly offset by lower forecasts for the EU, Russia and Ukraine. Exports from Argentina expanded by 1.5 million tons to a record 19.5 million tons, as its wheat remained the world’s lowest-priced among major exporters.
Projected 2025-26 global ending stocks were reduced by 0.6 million tons to 277 million tons, but remained at a 5-year high.
Corn outlook stable
March’s 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook was unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2025-26 was forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion tons. The foreign coarse grain outlook was for larger production, greater trade and higher ending stocks relative to February’s report.
Foreign corn production was higher as increases for Ukraine and Brazil were partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Ukraine’s production was raised based on the latest information from the State Statistics Service. Brazil’s was higher based on an increase for first crop area. Argentina’s was lowered as February dryness reduced yield expectations.
Major global trade changes for 2025-26 included higher corn exports for India. For 2024-25, based on observed shipments to date, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 were higher, while Argentina’s were reduced. Corn imports for 2025-26 were raised for Vietnam and the Philippines, but lowered for India.
Foreign corn ending stocks were higher, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine and India that were partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Global corn ending stocks, at 292.8 million tons, were up 3.8 million tons.
Increased exports, crush for soybeans
The U.S. 2025-26 soybean supply and use projections included increased imports and crush, and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean imports were increased 5 million bushels, reflecting trade to date. Crush was raised 5 million bushels, driven by higher soymeal domestic use.
The ag press is reporting market upticks for soybeans, largely because of optimisim about the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader X Jinping, which may lead to more soybean purchases by China.
Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates were revised based on observed data to date. Due to a lower soybean oil extraction rate, soybean oil production was slightly lower than last month despite the higher crush forecast. Soybean oil domestic use was marginally lower with lower soybean oil for biofuel use mostly offset by higher food, feed, and other industrial use. Soybean oil for biofuel use was lowered by 800 million pounds to 14 billion pounds and soybean oil ending stocks were revised slightly higher.
U.S. soybean ending stocks remained unchanged at 350 million bushels.
The season-average soybean price was projected to be unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soymeal price was raised $5 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 55 cents per pound, up 2 cents.
Global 2025-26 oilseed production was raised by 1.8 million tons on higher sunflower seed, rapeseed, and cottonseed production, partly offset by lower soybean production. Sunflower seed production was raised for Argentina, Ukraine and Kazakhstan while rapeseed was increased for Australia and Kazakhstan. Global soybean production was reduced on lower production for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina production was lowered by 0.5 million tons to 48 million tons on a lower yield partly offset by higher area.
Ukraine production was reduced by 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million on lower area. The global 2025-26 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Soybean exports were reduced for Ukraine and imports were lowered for India, Iran and Turkey. Crush was reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks were reduced by 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
