USDA trims wheat stocks as corn, soybean production forecasts shift 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2026-2027 United States wheat production and ending stocks forecasts while raising projected corn exports, soybean production and rice production in its Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. 

U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from July. The reduction reflects lower harvested area and yield, with hard red winter and durum wheat accounting for most of the decline. 

Projected wheat ending stocks were lowered 5 million bushels to 717 million bushels, down 22% from 2025-2026. The season-average farm price forecast increased 20 cents per bushel to $6.20. 

Globally, 2026-2027 wheat supplies are projected at 1.0995 billion metric tons, up 500,000 tons from July. Higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production forecasts for the European Union, United Kingdom and Brazil. 

The European Union and United Kingdom production forecasts were reduced because prolonged above-average temperatures during grain fill affected yield prospects. Global wheat consumption is projected at 826.3 million tons, up 100,000 tons, as higher feed and residual use more than offsets lower food, seed and industrial use. 

World wheat trade is forecast at 212.7 million tons, down 300,000 tons. Lower exports from Russia and Ukraine, linked to logistical disruptions from increased conflict in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea, are partly offset by higher exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. 

Global wheat ending stocks are projected at 273.3 million tons, up 400,000 tons, as higher stocks in Ukraine and Russia more than offset reductions in Indonesia, Australia and several other countries. 

Corn 

The U.S. corn outlook calls for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from July. A 1.2 million-acre increase in harvested area was largely offset by a lower yield forecast. 

The first survey-based corn yield forecast for 2026-2027 is 180.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from July. USDA said the projected crop would be the second-largest U.S. corn harvest on record. 

Corn beginning stocks were lowered 75 million bushels to 1.9 billion bushels, reflecting higher estimated exports for 2025-2026. Sorghum production is forecast at 296 million bushels, down 84 million bushels from July, with the yield forecast at 55.4 bushels per acre. 

Total U.S. corn use is projected at 16.3 billion bushels, up 75 million from July. Exports account for the increase, rising 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion as global demand increases and Ukraine’s exports are constrained. 

With use rising more than supply, U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, down 137 million from July. The season-average farm price forecast increased 10 cents per bushel to $4.50. 

Global coarse grain production is projected at 1.593 billion tons, up 1.1 million tons. Foreign production is higher, while trade is lower, use is higher and ending stocks are larger compared with July. 

Foreign corn production increased on higher forecasts for Russia, Ukraine and Zambia, partly offset by a lower forecast for the European Union. Extreme heat and dryness in major EU corn-producing areas reduced yield prospects, while harvested area also was lowered. 

Foreign barley production is higher, with increases for Russia, Canada and Ukraine. U.S. corn exports are projected higher, while Ukrainian and EU exports are lower. Corn imports are raised for the EU but lowered for China and Turkey. 

Global corn stocks are projected at 274.7 million tons, down 600,000 tons. 

Rice 

The U.S. rice outlook calls for higher supplies, domestic use and ending stocks, with exports unchanged. Production is forecast at 158.4 million hundredweight, up 5.1 million from July. A higher harvested area more than offsets a lower yield. 

The average all-rice yield is forecast at 7,644 pounds per acre, down 102 pounds from the previous forecast. Long-grain production is projected at 106.7 million hundredweight, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 51.7 million. 

All-rice domestic use and residual is projected at 148.0 million hundredweight, up 2 million from July. Ending stocks are forecast at 36.0 million hundredweight, down 33% from 2025-2026. The season-average farm price forecast is unchanged at $14.90 per hundredweight. 

Global rice supplies are projected at 735.4 million tons, up 100,000 tons, as higher U.S. production more than offsets lower production in Peru. Consumption is forecast at 542.8 million tons, while trade is unchanged at 62.8 million tons. 

Global rice ending stocks are projected at 192.6 million tons, with higher U.S. stocks more than offsetting reductions in Iran, the Dominican Republic, Laos and the Philippines. 

Soybeans 

U.S. oilseed production is projected at 132.7 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from July. Higher soybean production is partly offset by lower peanut and cottonseed production. 

Soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, up 44 million bushels from July on higher harvested area and a slightly lower yield. Harvested area increased 1.4 million acres to 85.8 million acres, with higher acreage projected in Missouri, Mississippi and Minnesota. 

The first survey-based soybean yield forecast is 52.7 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from July and from the 2025-2026 record yield. Soybean supplies are projected 39 million bushels higher than July as increased production more than offsets lower beginning stocks. 

U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 2.78 billion bushels, up 30 million bushels from July. The increase reflects stronger crush margins and demand for soybean meal and oil. 

Soybean meal exports are projected at 22.7 million short tons, up 700,000 tons. USDA cited strong global demand and higher domestic use and imports in several markets, including the Philippines, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, the EU, and Ecuador. 

U.S. soybean exports are unchanged, while ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels to 320 million bushels. The season-average soybean price remains forecast at $11.40 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $310 per short ton and 70 cents per pound, respectively. 

Foreign oilseed production is slightly lower as reduced soybean and sunflower seed production mostly offsets higher canola and cottonseed production. Ukraine’s soybean production forecast was reduced on lower reported area. 

EU sunflower seed production is also lower as hot and dry conditions reduced yield prospects in France and Hungary. Production prospects were raised for Bulgaria and Romania because of favorable rainfall. 

Canada’s canola production forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 22.5 million tons on higher projected yields. USDA said the Canadian prairies largely avoided drought during the growing season, with abundant rainfall followed by hotter, drier conditions in late July and cooler weather in early August. 

Global soybean production is projected higher, with increased crush and slightly higher ending stocks. Higher U.S. production more than offsets lower Ukrainian production. Global soybean exports are unchanged as lower Ukrainian exports are offset by higher Argentine exports. 

Global soybean crush is higher for the U.S. and Canada, but lower for Ukraine. Ending stocks are projected at 124.2 million tons. 

Cotton 

The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2026-2027 projects lower production and ending stocks, with beginning stocks, consumption, exports and imports unchanged. 

All-cotton production is forecast at 13.61 million bales, more than 90,000 bales below July and nearly 300,000 bales below the 2025-2026 crop. Planted area was raised by more than 600,000 acres to 10.47 million, while harvested area increased to 8.19 million acres. 

The national average yield forecast was lowered 74 pounds to 798 pounds per harvested acre. Projected ending stocks are reduced to 40 million bales, producing a stocks-to-use ratio of 28.8%. 

The 2026-2027 season-average farm price forecast for cotton increased 2 cents to 75 cents per pound. The 2025-2026 price forecast was lowered 1 cent to 61.5 cents per pound. 

Global cotton supplies for 2026-2027 are projected nearly 550,000 bales lower as reduced beginning stocks more than offset higher production. Global production is forecast at 117.6 million bales, up more than 370,000 bales from July. 

Higher production in Brazil, Greece and Turkey more than offsets the lower U.S. crop. Global cotton consumption is projected at 122.9 million bales, up nearly 1 million bales, led by higher use in China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia. 

World cotton trade is projected at 43.8 million bales, up nearly 500,000 bales, with higher Brazilian exports and increased imports by India, Vietnam and Indonesia. 

Global cotton ending stocks are forecast at 69.7 million bales, down more than 1.5 million from July. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 56.7%. 

For 2025-2026, global cotton production is raised marginally while consumption increases by more than 900,000 bales. Exports are raised by more than 720,000 bales, while ending stocks are reduced by more than 900,000 bales, primarily because of reductions in India, China and Brazil.