USDA lowers U.S. wheat production outlook in June WASDE report
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Outlook Board released its June 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, lowering its outlook for United States wheat production while leaving several other major commodity forecasts largely unchanged.
USDA projected 2026-2027 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.543 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels from the previous month, largely because of lower hard red winter wheat production. The national average wheat yield was reduced by 0.5 bushels per acre to 47 bushels per acre.
U.S. wheat ending stocks were forecast at 744 million bushels, down 18 million bushels from the prior month and 20% below the previous year. USDA also lowered the projected season-average farm price for wheat by 50 cents to $6 per bushel.
Globally, wheat supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks were all raised from the previous month. Russia’s wheat production forecast increased by 2 million metric tons to 88 million metric tons because of favorable weather and rainfall conditions. Turkey’s crop was raised to a record 22.5 million metric tons, while Ukraine’s production estimate increased to 23.5 million metric tons.
Australia’s wheat production estimate was lowered by 2 million metric tons to 28 million metric tons because of reduced harvested area.
The U.S. corn outlook for 2026-2027 was mostly unchanged. USDA maintained the projected season-average farm price at $4.40 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production was forecast at 1.594 billion metric tons, up 5.8 million metric tons from last month. USDA increased corn production estimates for India, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay for 2025-2026, while lowering the forecast for Mexico.
Global corn ending stocks were projected at 281.2 million metric tons, up 3.7 million metric tons from the previous month.
For rice, USDA raised U.S. ending stocks for 2025-2026 by 500,000 hundredweight to 54.8 million hundredweight, the highest level since 1985-1986. The season-average farm price forecast for 2026-2027 rice was unchanged at $13.50 per hundredweight.
Global rice production for 2026-2027 remained unchanged at 537.8 million metric tons. India’s 2025-2026 rice production estimate was raised to a record 154 million metric tons based on the government’s Third Advanced Estimate.
USDA left its 2026-2027 U.S. soybean supply, use and price forecasts unchanged. The season-average soybean price was projected at $11.40 per bushel.
Globally, soybean ending stocks were raised slightly to 124.9 million metric tons, largely because of higher stocks in Argentina. Argentina’s prior-year soybean production estimate was increased by 2 million metric tons to 50 million metric tons.
In sugar, USDA increased projected 2026-2027 U.S. beet sugar production to 4.939 million short tons, raw value, up 217,100 short tons from the previous month. The increase reflected higher projected yields and increased sugar production from desugared molasses.
Florida cane sugar production also increased because of improved growing conditions and revised assessments following a February freeze.
For cotton, USDA reduced projected 2026-2027 U.S. beginning and ending stocks by 200,000 bales from the prior month. Production, consumption and trade forecasts were unchanged, and the projected season-average price remained at 73 cents per pound.
The 2025-2026 U.S. cotton export forecast increased by 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales, while ending stocks were projected at 4.2 million bales.
Globally, cotton consumption for 2026-2027 increased slightly to 121.8 million bales, driven by stronger demand from China. World ending stocks were forecast at 71.1 million bales.
