Will the corn and soybean rally continue in September?

What a summer for corn and soybean futures! A price sell off during the month of June on ideas of a large United States crop was quickly negated during the month of July thanks to a drought in Europe and a flash drought in the U.S.

The rally continued in August as the potential for record U.S. corn and soybean yield was in doubt. Heading into September, traders are wondering if the rally will continue? Or might there be a price correction lower at some point during the month?

September could be a significant turning point for corn and soybean prices; either higher or lower, as many pieces of fundamental information will become more available.

Here are the five fundamentals to monitor this month.

From a marketing perspective

No. 1 on the list is monitoring the weather. Even though the bulk of the growing season is wrapping up, traders are still monitoring U.S. weather to understand the potential yield for both corn and soybeans. Did August high temperatures zap yield potential for soybeans? How fast will the corn dry down with the early September heat burst? Will harvest be able to begin quickly due to warmer and dryer conditions?

No. 2 on the list is the Sept. 11 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Traders will eagerly watch what the USDA pegs for yield, along with U.S. and global production totals. Early harvest corn yields in southern portions of the Midwest are coming in mixed. The summer rains were sporadic in some areas, the extreme heat nipped ultimate yield potential for other portions of the Midwest.

Traders are currently pricing in corn yield closer to 175 bushels per acre, lower than the current USDA yield number of 180.7 bushels per acre. The most recent USDA report in August had soybean yield marked at 52.7 bushels per acre. Ultimately, where will the USDA place yield for corn and soybeans on the upcoming WASDE report?

No. 3 on the list is monitoring demand. When looking at the corn market, demand for corn has been more than robust. Corn use for ethanol demand is solid for the 2026-27 crop year, pegged at 5.6 billion bushels, with feed and residual demand also strong at 6.1 billion bushels, with exports marked at 3.275 billion bushels. Will the USDA make any adjustments to demand on Sept. 11?

Soybean domestic demand is phenomenal thanks to crush demand for biofuel. Soybeans used for crush are slated as 2.78 billion bushels, up from 2.655 billion bushels last year. What still lies in question is where soybean exports will ultimately fall. Right now the USDA has soybean exports for the 2026-27 crop year pegged at 1.66 billion bushels, but that number assumes the 25 million metric tons that China is said to purchase from the U.S. this year.

No. 4 on the September watch list is monitoring the U.S. dollar. The value of the U.S. dollar continues to hover near 99.50 after peaking near 110.00 in January 2025. So far in 2026, the value of the U.S. dollar index has traded in a mostly lackluster pattern, supported at 95.00, with resistance at 100.00. Currency fluctuations may occur for the remainder of 2026 as the Fed continues to monitor inflation, interest rates, trade wars, and tariff risks.

All you need to remember is that when the value of the U.S. dollar is down, currency exchange rates make it cheaper for other countries to import our commodities. A lower dollar likely increases demand for U.S. corn and soybean exports.

Lastly, we need to monitor managed money funds. The big investment money that partakes in the trading of commodities. The fund managers also watch and monitor all the fundamentals listed above, as they are looking for opportunities to invest and make money.

On Aug. 28, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed money fund investors held a net-long corn futures position of 376,513 contracts (as of the Aug. 25 end of business reporting day). However, funds continued to add to long positions during the last few business days of August, and trade estimates them to be likely net long closer to 400,000 contracts, which is not far below the record of 435,350 contracts.

That same report showed that managed money traders held a net-long soybean futures position of 198,254 contracts as of Aug. 25. The rally into the last few days of August, has traders estimated that managed money funds may be net long closer to 225,000, nearing the record net long of 254,000. Speculative length could become a market factor in the coming weeks if funds continue to pile in, raising the risk of swift long liquidation if the market gets some bearish news, which could send prices dramatically lower.

Prepare yourself

It seems like grain marketing gets more challenging as each year passes. Grain marketing has many moving parts. It is important that you are aware of those moving parts, balance them accordingly, and be ready with a mindset to both capture market opportunities and manage risk.

Monitoring and balancing these five important fundamentals during the month of September is important. Re-visit these fundamentals often as news continues to shift weekly.

Be ready to act on pricing opportunities as they become available. Have action plans ready for whatever market scenario unfolds. Remember, marketing is how you get paid for your hard work. Prices can turn on a whim, be confident and ready.

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.

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