The March Prospective Plantings report came in primarily near expectations and provided very little for fresh fundamental news. Most report results were within pre-report expected trading ranges.
The lack of fresh bullish news put a lid on a price rally and instead allowed for grain prices to trade sideways to lower as a price reaction.
From a marketing perspective
Let’s break it down crop by crop.
All wheat planted acres are pegged at 43.775 million acres, this was lower than the average estimate of 44.7 million acres and a range of 43.1 to 46.6 million acres. Winter wheat acres are marked at 32.41 million acres, lower than the average estimate of 32.9 million acres. Spring wheat acres, also came in lower than the average estimate of 9.8 million acres, at lower number of 9.415 million acres. Planted United States wheat acres are said to now be the lowest planted acres in nearly 100 years.
For soybeans, the report suggested that U.S. farmers will plant 84.7 million acres of soybeans. This was slightly below the average pre-report estimate of 85.5 million acres, and well within the expected range of 84 to 87 million acres. Last year, farmers planted 81.2 million acres of soybeans.
Regarding corn, farmers are expected to plant 95.338 million acres, which was higher than the average estimate of 94.5 million acres and within the range of estimates of 92.6 to 96 million acres. Last year, farmers planted 98.8 million acres of corn.
Prepare yourself…
In the short term, this report left little for fresh traction for a bullish rally, yet prices may not slither too much lower, until the U.S. crop is fully planted and summer weather is known.
Traders are already pointing to low farmer response rate on this survey, and some in the industry suggest that soybean planted acreage may increase this spring in light of higher input costs (especially fertilizer) due to conflict in the Middle East.
With little for fresh news regarding expected planted spring acres, traders will likely go back to weather watching, monitoring the events in the Middle East, and the upcoming April 9 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.
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