Grain markets challenge farmers the rest of 2026

If a farmer is looking to the markets to reward him for his production prowess, 2026 will be one of the toughest years in recent memory.

Two grain economists noted that producers will need to have sharp pencils and realistic expectations.

One positive indication is that corn has seen record exports, and Ed Usset, grain marketing specialist for the Center for Farm Financial Management at the University of Minnesota, said that has been driven by Mexico. In calendar year 2025, Mexico purchased more than 1 billion bushels.

“That’s an incredible number,” he said, adding Mexico bought half that level just five years ago. He added that prices, even with all those sales, have remained in the lower $4 per bushel range.

“I’m a little disappointed with corn, and I say that because prices are up some,” Usset said. “The corn market has been so quiet for so long. Now (April 15) we’ve got new crop at just under $4.80 per bushel, and that is as close to good as it’s been for a long time.”

Stephen Koontz, professor and Nutrien distinguished scholar of agricultural sciences in the department of agricultural and resource economics at Colorado State University, said United States stocks are the overall story.

“The strong exports have been very good—but world supplies of course grains are tight compared to the United States, so if you want corn then you are coming here,” he said. “The U.S. price has been the lowest in the world. The good news is that we are on the way to export our enormous crop.”

A year ago, corn farmers faced the same dilemma, Usset said. December contracts in 2024 and 2025 found themselves at around $3.90 per bushel for contract lows.

“I wish it were 20 cents higher,” he said. “You look for a good average and that is a place to start and then hope the heck you’re wrong.”

In the western Corn Belt, Koontz said contracting bushels may provide some benefit.

“I’d have sold what I wanted to sell before mid-July,” he said. “I think weather volatility is going to be pretty strong. Forward sell a max of what you have crop insurance for. Sell during a run up and don’t expect to be able to pick the top and have some to sell at or after harvest.”

Regions carry some weight in strategy decisions, Koontz said, but added it is always important to diversify sales.

A look at beans

Soybean farmers are likely to have the best pricing opportunity, Usset said. The November contracts are showing $11.55 per bushel, and for many farmers in the Corn Belt that will cover production costs. “It’s not a fat profit, but it’s profitable.”

In years like this, it is difficult for a producer to define what a top price could be forecast, but considering the November 2024 and November 2025 contract prices were below $10 per bushel for contract lows, it at least this year has a better feel, he said. It appears South America is likely to have a good crop again, and how many beans China may purchase remains unknown.

The impact of the Iran war could help corn and soybeans because of the fuel market—corn bushels are used to produce ethanol, and soybean oil is needed for renewable diesel, Usset said. If oil prices continue to stay elevated, there could be an increase in demand for those grains.

Koontz said full integration and adoption of E15 is a multiyear process, and he noted sorghum also plays a part in the equation.

“I don’t see much spillover from diesel to gasoline,” Koontz said. “If anything, it’s going to take time.”

Renewable diesel could take off, but demand is driven by tax incentives and mandates at the state and federal levels, Usset said, and varies in participation from state to state. However, the soybean industry has been impressive with the addition of 12 crush plants in the past three years in the United States, with three more expected to come online by the end of the year.

“Crush margins are very good right now,” he said. “Soybean meal is $45 per short ton higher than it was six months ago. Soy and the oil markets are doing well. The crush margin is good, and that is a great incentive to crush more soy.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 31 Planting Intentions report indicated what many analysts predicted: There would be about 3 million more acres of soybeans planted and 3 million fewer corn acres. The report projects corn at 95.3 million acres and soybeans at 84.7 million acres.

“Soybeans are pretty tempting right now, price-wise and also because fertilizer costs are so high, which would discourage a last-minute shift to corn,” he said. Many producers locked in their fertilizer purchases last fall, but costs are much higher this spring.

Traditionally, if farmers were going to add corn acres in the spring, they would need to purchase the seed and fertilizer at a spot rate, he said, which is much higher this year.

Consideration for producers

When it comes to soybeans, Usset was more optimistic about pricing opportunities. Producers must recognize that trade disruption is a variable. While President Donald Trump has announced plans to go to China to meet Xi Jinping, that might rally soybeans, but Usset reminded producers the market tumbled when an earlier trip was postponed because the president wanted to see how the war in Iran unfolded.

At least with an $11.50 per bushel November futures price, it gives producers an opportunity for hope, Usset said.

In the meantime, when it comes to old-crop grain, he encourages producers to shop around and not be afraid to do so.

“I think it’s on the onus of every producer to look around 30 miles down the road, and if you’re in western Kansas you might have to look 60 or 70 miles—but look,” Usset said. “One thing disappointing with the current market is the basis levels. I know here in the North the basis levels for corn and soybeans are very slowly improving from god-awful numbers, and that is not the sign of a fundamentally strong cash market, but they are slowly improving.”

While some analysts are suggesting using put options, Usset offers a caveat that while the market could experience a bull run, more likely producers are going to have a market with thin profit margins, which means it might be best for producers to focus on getting grain sold because the market is likely to have a lot more bushels of corn and soybeans to contend with.

Koontz said weather is driving much of the uncertainty, particularly for corn and sorghum.

“The strategy was to have made good crop insurance choices back in February,” Koontz said. “Beyond that then make sure you are following local basis. Someone is going to need grain—sell it to them when the basis gives you 25 cents more than you would expect—maybe don’t wait for 25 cents and jump at 15 to 20 cents.”

Other thoughts

• In Minnesota, spring wheat, and to a degree farther south where there is winter wheat, there could be some pricing opportunities for those commodities, Usset said.

• “Mind your costs,” Koontz said. “Watch your basis. Be cautious and be careful. Be thinking about your crop insurance for next year and have that worked out this year.”

Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].