January WASDE meat and poultry forecast reduces total 2019 production
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its January 2020 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, Jan. 10, and the report reduced the 2019 total red meat and poultry production estimate from December, based on lower pork and turkey production despite higher beef production for the year.
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry production forecast was increased fractionally with predictions of higher broiler production, and lower expected beef, pork and turkey production.
The beef production estimate for the end of last year was raised to 27.51 million pounds based on the pace of slaughter at the end of 2019. January 2020 slaughter is projected to be down to 27.44 million pounds, based on lighter expected carcass weights.
“However, quarterly beef production was increased in the first half of the year and reduced in the second half of the year due to higher-than-expected cattle placements in late 2019 and a reduced placement forecast for early 2020,” the report stated. USDA will release its semi-annual cattle report on Jan. 31, which will have estimates of heifers held for breeding and estimates of feeder cattle available for placement during 2020.
Pork production for 2019 was reduced based on the slower pace of slaughter late in the year. December 2019 saw 28.68 million pounds of pork produced, while Jan. 2020 is projected to see a slight decrease to 28.64 million pounds.
“USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the 2019 September-November pig crop 2% higher than the prior year which supports a higher first-half 2020 slaughter and production forecast,” according to the WASDE report. The quarterly report also indicated producers intend to expand farrowings about 1% in the first half of 2020. That along with slowing rate of growth in pigs per litter is grounds for a reduced hog slaughter forecast for the second half of 2020.
Forecast broiler production is raised for 2020 on recent hatchery data, which points to continued expansion of laying flocks. The turkey production forecast is reduced, while the egg production forecast is raised on gains in the laying flock.
On the trade side, beef imports are forecasted to increase for 2019 based on recent data, and no change was made to the 2020 import forecast of 2.88 million pounds. The 2019 beef export forecast was reduced to reflect a slower export pace late in the year, but no change was made to the 2020 beef export forecast of 3.305 million pounds.
The pork export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged from the previous month.
For 2020, the first-quarter cattle price was raised to a projected $117.50 per hundredweight, reflecting current early-year price strength. First-half hog price forecasts are reduced to $54.50 per hundredweight, based on current prices and increased production.
Milk production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were lowered from December on slower expected growth in milk per cow.
“The 2019 fat basis import forecast is unchanged from last month, but the 2020 import forecast is reduced on lower expected cheese and butterfat imports,” the report stated. “The fat basis export forecast for 2019 and 2020 is raised on recent trade data and strong sales of cheese and other dairy-containing products. On a skim-solids basis, the 2019 and 2020 import forecasts are unchanged. Skim-solids basis export forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are raised on strong global demand for nonfat dry milk.”
The 2019 all milk estimate was unchanged at $18.60, but the 2020 all milk price forecast is reduced to $19.25 per hundredweight.
To see the full WASDE report, visit www.usda.gov.
Jennifer M. Latzke can be reached at 620-227-1807 or [email protected].
