Drought continues to have hold in country’s midsection
In the past week over 3 inches of rain fell on broad areas including the central Great Plains. Between 5 and 7 inches soaked some areas in the southern tier of Arkansas, areas near the central Alabama/Mississippi border, the Florida Panhandle, and southwestern Virginia.
In contrast, very little precipitation fell from the Rockies westward to the Pacific Coast, the Dakotas, Oklahoma and western Kansas, most of Texas, central and western Louisiana, part of the Illinois Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the interior Southeast, parts of the upper Ohio Valley, most of the coastal and piedmont areas in the Carolinas, upstate New York, and the central mid-Atlantic Region.
In the south-central and southwestern parts of the Lower 48, intense heat accompanied dry weather, with the week averaging 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Texas westward through the desert Southwest and part of the southern half of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 129 degrees near Baker, California, on July 16. Elsewhere, the Northeast, Florida, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the West Coast states were also warmer than normal.
A broad range of conditions can be found across the region, and even regarding the week’s rainfall totals, some got too much while others languished in heat and drought. Most of Texas was dry this past week, and conditions deteriorated south of the Panhandle. D3 and D4 conditions (extreme to exceptional drought) expanded in the middle of the state, and severe drought (D2) pushed northward toward the central Red River Valley. Agriculture is increasingly impacted by the drought here, with 45% of the Texas cotton crop in poor or very poor condition. Almost half of rangelands were in poor or very poor condition, increasingly stressing livestock. In addition, 27% of Texas oats are in poor or very poor condition.
Elsewhere, the only other area remaining in D2 to D3 are north-central and southwestern Oklahoma, and agricultural impacts have been far milder outside the Lone Star State. Heavy rains over the past two weeks have left a large swath across the Panhandles, central Oklahoma, the north half of the Lower Mississippi Valley, and much of Tennessee free of any abnormal dryness.
As in areas farther south, the past week was a mixed bag across the region. Heavy rains improved conditions in significant parts of Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana, with localized improvement noted in parts of Illinois, Missouri, and Wisconsin as well. But in some cases, there was a sharp gradient between areas with copious rainfall and neighboring areas that received little or none, creating a sharp gradient between some areas of severe to exceptional drought, and others only mildly impacted by dryness. Exceptional drought (D4) persisted in central Missouri while D3 covered sizeable sections of central and northeastern Missouri, southeastern Iowa, and both northern and southern parts of Wisconsin.
In addition, new areas of extreme drought (D3) were assessed in parts of east-central and southeastern Minnesota. Agricultural impacts have been observed region-wide, particularly in Missouri. Almost three-quarters of pastures and rangelands in the state are in poor or very poor condition, as are one-third of their corn crop and 28% of their soybean crop. In addition, 22% of both the corn and soybean crops in Illinois are poor or very poor, and 15 to 20% of soybeans elsewhere are poor or very poor.
Drought remained widespread across Kansas, Nebraska outside the Panhandle, and southeastern South Dakota, with some swaths of improvement incurred in eastern parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Meanwhile, dryness and drought expanded slightly across northern North Dakota, and with the Southwest Monsoon off to a slow start, abnormal dryness has developed over a large part of the southwest quarter of Colorado.
Other parts of the central Rockies and most of the Dakotas are unchanged from this past week. In South Dakota, 31% of spring wheat and 19% of oats are in poor or very poor condition, along with 15% of spring wheat in North Dakota.
There was little rainfall in the west region this past week, but since this is a dry time of year in much of the region outside the Four Corners states, there was little change in dryness and drought for most areas; however, monsoonal rainfall was again lacking in the Four Corners, prompting a significant expansion of abnormal dryness across New Mexico, Arizona, and southeastern Utah. D0 and D1 also increased across west-central and northeastern Montana.
Looking ahead
According to the Weather Prediction Center, over the next five days (July 20 to 24) moderate to heavy precipitation is expected across parts of the central and southern High Plains from central New Mexico northward into southeast Wyoming, and eastward across western Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and adjacent locales.
Totals near or over 2 inches are forecast for parts of northeastern Colorado, western Kansas, and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Light to locally moderate amounts are expected in higher elevations of the southern Rockies and some adjacent locations, with at least a few tenths of an inch possible over the central Rockies and part of the Great Basin. Little or no precipitation is expected elsewhere from the Plains states westward to the Pacific Coast, except in parts of extreme southeastern Texas.
Most of the Lone Star State is forecast to receive little if any precipitation. Temperatures are expected to remain considerably above normal from the Rockies to the Pacific Coast, over much of the northern and southern Plains, across Peninsular Florida, and in New England. Temperatures should average closer to normal elsewhere, with slightly cooler than normal conditions expected over and near the greater Ohio Valley and the adjacent interior Southeast.
During the ensuing five days (July 25 to 29), the Climate Prediction Center favors above normal temperatures for almost all of the contiguous states and Alaska, except in the Pacific Northwest. Odds for significantly above-normal temperatures exceed 70% in a large area encompassing the eastern Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, and most of the Plains from central North Dakota southward into central Texas. Odds slightly favor drier-than-normal weather in the northern Intermountain West, the Great Basin, much of Oregon and adjacent California, the southern High Plains, most of the central and southern Great Plains, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, the lower Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Southeast, and the South Atlantic Coastal Plain from northern Florida into North Carolina.
