Current drought conditions weigh on producers

Drought conditions across much of South Dakota have persisted since late last summer, through fall and winter with a lack of significant winter precipitation.

In South Dakota, much of the state has received 50% or less than normal precipitation since Oct. 1, 2024. Dormant precipitation is important to be able to recharge soil moisture and prepare for the spring green up. Drought conditions across much of South Dakota have persisted since late last summer, through fall and winter with a lack of significant winter precipitation.

In South Dakota, much of the state has received 50% or less than normal precipitation since Oct. 1, 2024. Dormant precipitation is important to be able to recharge soil moisture and prepare for the spring green up.

The four-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index ending March 27, is notable, because it shows the thawed soils, warm temperatures and lack of precipitation is further drying out the soil. The index is strongly influenced by both precipitation and temperature and indicates the potential for drought conditions to emerge/worsen. As the grazing season is inching closer, dry conditions have become very apparent.

Understanding dry soil conditions

According to the South Dakota Mesonet, many locations are experiencing very dry soil conditions even down to 40 inches.

Looking at 2025 so far, the soil froze down to 50 inches when a cold snap hit in January, but began thawing out again in early March. When soils are unthawed, without cover, moisture can continue to deplete.

Dry soil conditions combined with a lack of dormant precipitation typically indicate the need to reduce stocking rates or delay spring turnout. Given that many areas of the state are starting out the spring season with soil moisture behind the curve, many producers will need to adjust their management plans. At this point, they need above normal precipitation in April, May and June to cultivate a normal growing and grazing season.

In the Northern Great Plains, spring precipitation is extremely influential on the amount of forage produced during the growing season. However, temperature and precipitation during the dormant season determines where we start the race for the spring green up. When dormant season precipitation is scarce, combined with warmer temperatures, moisture is quickly depleted from thawed soils.

A recent review looked at historical precipitation data from April, May, and June, to determine how often drought years and wet years occur across the Great Plains region. If less than 75% of normal precipitation occurred, it was classified as a drought year. If more than 125% of normal precipitation occurred, it was classified as a wet year. In Cottonwood, South Dakota, 24 out of 104 years were wet. In Highmore, South Dakota, 27 out of 120 years were wet. Combined, that’s about a 23% historical chance of above average April, May and June precipitation.

What is your plan for the grazing season?

Your management determines the extent to which drought and other uncontrollable events will impact your business. Proactive decision making is the key to ranch and drought management. It is better to make decisions while you still have choices than to wait and be forced into a decision you don’t want to make.

Given current soil moisture conditions and weather outlooks, delayed turnout, reduced grazing, and reduced stocking rates are a very real possibility. Due to the lack of dormant-season precipitation, it is more important than ever to get adequate spring precipitation. Everyone should take time to assess their resources and regularly monitor soil moisture and weather outlooks in preparation for the 2025 grazing season. Do you have the information and resources you need to make decisions?

Helpful resources

• See Culling Decisions Due to Drought and Herd Management: Keep or Cull During a Drought? For assistance with de-stocking and culling decisions.
• See the National Drought Mitigation Center (Ranch Planning) and Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch for a decision-making guide and example drought plans.
• For more information on climate and weather outlooks, contact SDSU State Climatologist, Laura Edwards or visit the SD Mesonet website.
• For more information on pasture monitoring and drought planning, contact SDSU Extension Range and Natural Resources staff.

Kaylee Wheeler is a South Dakota State University  Extension range field specialist.