As expected warm temps forecast for July

Regina Bird

While June brought needed rain in parts of the Plains, for some it came too fast and led to flash flooding. One instance of this was in the Grand Island, Nebraska, area on June 25 where 7 to 8 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time.

Earlier in June, Wichita, Kansas, was also inundated with too much rain too quickly (4.19 inches) on June 17. That led to widespread flash flooding there with water rescues. Storms that day also produced a 101 mph wind gust in Wichita. Nearby Hutchinson also marked a 89 mph wind gust that day.

As was witnessed in parts of Kansas and Nebraska, some of the rain came with severe storms that packed damaging winds and large hail. As is typical with June, several rounds of severe storms rolled through the Plains during the month. 

With a prolonged time of an upper-level ridge overhead, June also had an extended time of hot temperatures in the central Plains. For instance, June 15 to 16 brought new daily record highs in El Paso, Texas of 109 degrees Fahrenheit and 108 degrees, respectively. The first day of summer held new daily records for three Nebraska cities—Imperial (106 degrees) McCook (105 degrees) and Chadron (103 degrees).

For July, above-average temperatures are forecast for the southern and western parts of Texas along with western Oklahoma and Kansas and much of Nebraska. 

During that same time, we will likely see below-average precipitation for Nebraska and much of Kansas.

The trend of below-average precipitation is forecast to continue into September for Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

For the next three months, above-average temperatures are expected for all of the Plains.

In the wider scheme, ENSO-Neutral conditions are forecast to remain for the summer. Beyond that uncertainty exists on what will come next, although some forecast models are hinting at ENSO-Neutral still into the fall.

I’m always keeping an eye to the sky (and the weather patterns), so watch for August’s update.

Editor’s note: Regina Bird grew up on a farm near Belleville, Kansas. The views from the farm helped spur her interest in weather. Following high school, she went on to get a bachelor’s degree in meteorology from the University of Kansas. She worked as a television meteorologist for nine years in Nebraska. Follow her on Twitter: @ReginaBirdWX.