The nation’s swine inventory has been holding steady the past year and showed an increase of 1% during the second quarter as the herd has a count of 75.1 million pigs.
That was the finding from the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published recently by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
National Pork Producers Council economist Holly Cook said the inventory was in line with her expectations. She noted that based on a survey of analysts, the average pre-report estimate showed the expected breeding inventory to be down 0.1% from June 2024 and the market hog inventory to be down 0.2%.
The USDA report showed an actual breeding herd decline of 0.5% and actual market hog increase of 0.4%, she said.
“Generally, more than 1% difference between the average pre-report estimate and the reported inventory change is considered a surprise, and the only category experiencing this was the 120- to 179-pound market hog category, which was reported to be up 0.5% versus a 1.1% expected decline,” Cook said.
Other key findings from Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report were:
• Of the 75.1 million hogs and pigs, 69.2 million were market hogs, while 5.98 million head were kept for breeding.
Between March and May 2025, 34.2 million pigs were weaned on United States farms, up 1% from the same time period one year earlier.
• From March through May 2025, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.75 pigs per litter.
• U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.97 million sows farrow between June and August 2025, and 2.95 million sows farrow between September and November 2025.
• Iowa hog producers accounted for the largest inventory among the states, at 24.7 million head. Minnesota had the second-largest inventory at 9.3 million head, and North Carolina was third with 7.8 million head.
Hog prices have generally been good for most operators. USDA’s June forecast shows hog prices remaining above year-ago levels in the third and fourth quarters, Cook said. “Typically, hog prices peak in the summer due to seasonal supply and demand factors,” the NPPC economist said. “Hog slaughter and pork production levels typically increase in the fall and winter, which can pressure prices lower. Stronger domestic or export demand or lower than expected production levels could serve as supportive factors for hog prices later this year.”
Prospects of tariffs being imposed by the Trump administration that could impact several important export markets have been on the mind of producers. A year ago, pork and variety meat exports were on the rise and continued into March of this year but did fall off in April, she said.
“So far in 2025, pork and variety meat export values are down 3.6% while volume is down 4.7% for the year,” Cook said.
The economist said producers are taking note of challenges that could surface in the last six months of 2025. “While futures markets imply positive margin opportunities for pork producers over the next several months, uncertainty surrounding domestic and international demand as well as threats of animal health challenges on individual farmers remain at the forefront,” she said.
To obtain an accurate measurement of the U.S. swine industry, NASS surveyed 4,476 operators across the nation during the first half of March. Data was collected through NASS’s respondent portal, by mail, telephone and through face-to-face interviews.
The next report will be released in late September.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
