The December release of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture are usually quiet affairs, with few surprises expected.
This Dec. 9, however, the WASDE aggressively increased United States’ corn export numbers, leading to a significant cut in U.S. corn ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat saw little change in U.S. balance sheets, though global wheat stocks rose due to increased production in Canada, Argentina and the European Union. Most analysts expected no major adjustments until the January report, making the corn export news a positive surprise for corn traders.
The 2025-26 marketing year (September 2025–August 2026) has seen U.S. corn exports surge to record levels, with the USDA forecasting 2.97 to 3 billion bushels—up from 2.75 billion in 2024-25 and exceeding the previous high of 2.747 billion bushels in 2020-21. First-quarter export inspections (September–November 2025) already hit over 19 million metric tons, a record pace driven by robust global demand. This growth represents a 22% increase over 2023-24, and has broadened U.S. market reach to 16 new destinations, including Vietnam (now in the top 10) and Spain (highest volumes since the 1980s).
In the December WASDE, exports were raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion bushels, reflecting shipments to date. Export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November and implies that total shipments during the September-November quarter will likely exceed 800 million bushels, surpassing the prior high set during 2007.
With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks were down by that same 125 million bushels to 2 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers remained unchanged at $4 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025-26 was forecast down slightly to 1.576 billion tons. The 2025-26 foreign coarse grain outlook was for lower production, trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production was cut, with declines for Ukraine, Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal partially offset by increases for the EU, Russia and Zimbabwe. Ukraine corn production was sharply lower, with reductions to both area and yield based on reported government data to date, where harvest has been slow because of wet conditions in key growing areas.
Canada’s corn crop was reduced based on the latest information from Statistics Canada. The EU was raised reflecting increases for Spain, Hungary, Romania, and Poland. Foreign barley production was higher with increases for Canada, the EU, and Australia. Corn exports for 2025-26 were raised for the U.S., but lowered for Ukraine. Corn imports were higher for Colombia with cuts for the EU and Zimbabwe.
Foreign corn ending stocks were higher based on an increase for Argentina partly offset by declines for Ukraine and Canada. Global corn stocks, at 279.2 million tons, were down 2.2 million.
Oilseeds
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2025-26 was forecast at 125.8 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. U.S. soybean supply, use, and price projections remained unchanged this month.
Global oilseed production for 2025-26 was raised, driven mainly by higher rapeseed, peanut, and soybean production, partially offset by lower sunflower seed output. Global rapeseed production was raised 3 million tons, with increases for Canada, Australia, and Russia. Canada had the largest increase, up 2 million tons to a record 22 million tons, based on the latest Statistics Canada report. Higher rapeseed production was mostly offset by lower global sunflower seed production, down 2.5 million tons on harvest results for Ukraine and Russia.
The 2025-26 global soybean outlook included higher production, increased crush, lower exports, and raised ending stocks. Global soybean production was increased 0.8 million tons to 422.5 million tons, reflecting higher crops for Russia and India but lower output for Canada and Ukraine. Global soybean crush for 2025-26 was increased by 0.3 million tons to 365.2 million tons, mainly on higher supplies in Russia and India.
Global soybean exports were lowered 0.3 million tons on lower shipments for Ukraine and Benin. Imports were reduced for Japan, Russia and Saudi Arabia but raised for Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks were increased by 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million tons, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and Russia.
Livestock and poultry
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production was raised as higher poultry and beef production were partially offset by lower pork production. Third-quarter production figures reflect official slaughter and production data.
Beef production was raised on a faster rate of slaughter for both fed and non-fed cattle for the fourth quarter, as well as higher dressed weights. Pork production was lowered on a slower rate of slaughter based on data through early December. Broiler production was raised based on official data through September, but no change was made to the fourth-quarter forecast.
Turkey production was increased on official third-quarter production totals, partially offset by lower fourth-quarter production due to additional outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza-related culling through early December. Egg production remained unchanged for 2025.
For 2026, beef production was raised, primarily on higher dressed weights. Pork production for 2026 was unchanged. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be published Dec. 23, will provide estimates of the pig crops and producer farrowing intentions affecting production in the upcoming year.
Broiler production was raised for 2026, as the uptick during the second-half of 2025 suggests expansion into next year. Turkey production was lowered, as HPAI-related culling is expected to reduce the breeding flock and production capacity throughout 2026. Egg production in 2026 remained unchanged.
David Murray can be reached at [email protected].
