NASS corrects September corn yield estimates for Kansas, Nebraska

After concerns were raised about the Oct. 9 Crop Production report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted a review of its September and October corn estimation procedures.

The review identified a September processing error involving incorrect acreage weights used to combine irrigated and nonirrigated objective yield observations for Kansas and Nebraska, according to Bryan Combs, director of the Office of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

The error affected September corn plant populations and ear counts for both states and the 10-state averages, as well as yield forecasts for both states and the United States, he said. The corrected September yield forecasts are 119 bushels per acre for Kansas (down 3 bushels per acre), 182 bushels per acre for Nebraska (up 5 bushels per acre) and 178.8 bushels per acre for the United States (up 0.3 bushels per acre). The affected September data and forecasts have been corrected in the Crop Production reports and Quick Stats.

NASS also reviewed and validated the October data and estimation procedures and confirmed the October yield and production forecasts remain unchanged.

“Moving forward, we will implement additional pre-publication checks to verify acreage weights and validate objective yield calculations,” Combs said. “We are evaluating further improvements to strengthen our quality-control procedures.

“We thank the farmers and data users who brought the concerns to our attention. NASS remains committed to providing timely, accurate, and reliable agricultural statistics and to promptly communicating and correcting any errors identified in our published data.”

In response to the developments, Matt Frostic, Michigan farmer and National Corn Growers Association president, released the following statement:  

“Recent reports by NASS have cost corn growers billions of dollars in market value, at a time when profit margins were already marginal, at best, and the cost for fuel and other inputs are at all-time highs. Corn prices dropped in conjunction with the release of recent reports and have only continued to drop. An error of this magnitude is unacceptable, and only further erodes farmer confidence in the agency’s ability to produce statistically sound and accurate reports.  

“NASS needs to seriously examine the processes and procedures that led to this mistake and take immediate action to prevent it from occurring again. We are anxious to meet with the service to understand their plans for improvement and how they intend to rebuild farmer confidence in these reports.” 

All NASS reports are available at www.nass.usda.gov/Publications.

Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].