Light showers find some parts of the Plains

Most of the eastern half of the 48 contiguous states received little or no rain this past week.

The only exceptions were across the eastern tier of the Florida Peninsula (over 2 inches in some areas), the Upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Lakes Region (a few tenths to nearly an inch), and parts of coastal southeastern Texas (a few tenths to a little over an inch).

Seasonably cool weather accompanied the fair weather across the northern half of the region, limiting drought intensification there. Warmer weather farther south led to broader areas of deterioration from the southern half of the Mississippi Valley eastward through the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Farther west, moderate to heavy precipitation fell from the northern Great Plains to the southern High Plains and westward to the Pacific Coast. Some lower elevation locations, parts of the lower Colorado Valley, and parts of the northern Rockies recorded only light amounts to a few tenths of an inch but amounts of at least 0.5 inch were observed elsewhere.

The largest amounts (over 2 inches) included central and southeastern sections of the Four Corners region and scattered locations across the higher elevations from western Montana southward through portions of =far western Wyoming. Between 4 and 8 inches were observed in some areas near the Colorado and New Mexico border.

This continued a pattern of heavy precipitation across much of the Four Corners region, and significant further improvements were introduced in a large part of this area, with some 2-category improvements introduced across the wettest parts of southern Colorado.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)

South

Over the past two to four weeks, different parts of the South region have trended in markedly different directions. Heavy precipitation has been observed at times across western parts of the South region, more specifically the central and western sections of Texas and Oklahoma.

Areas of additional rainfall led to further improvements in conditions, some areas near the West region free of dryness and drought. In contrast, rainfall has been sparse farther east, and another week of abnormally dry and warm weather led to broadscale deterioration across some of the eastern fringes of Oklahoma and Texas.

D3 to D4 conditions now dominate a large part of this region across Arkansas and some adjacent areas. Over the past four months, most locations across Arkansas have recorded 8 to 16 inches less precipitation than normal, or generally less than half of normal.

Midwest

Light to moderate precipitation (several tenths of an inch to slightly more) fell on the northwestern Great Lakes region, most of Minnesota, and northwestern Iowa while the vast majority of the Midwest region recorded little or no precipitation.

The drying trend of the past few weeks has led to increases in dryness and drought coverage and intensity through much of the southern and northern tiers of the Midwest region while several consecutive months with at or above normal precipitation has left a swath across the central part of the region from Iowa and northern Missouri mostly free from impactful dryness.

The dry and relatively warm week led to some expansion of D1 to D4 conditions in part of southern and eastern Missouri. D3 to D4 conditions now covering a large swath across central and southern Missouri.

High Plains

Excessive precipitation and areas of flooding were reported across much of central and southern Colorado, with at least moderate amounts (over 0.5 inch) common from the western half of Kansas northward through most of Nebraska and South Dakota.

Moderate amounts also fell on western Wyoming in association with a pulse of tropical moisture that impacted much of the West. One-category improvements were widespread across the southern half as well as northeastern Colorado, along with central through northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota.

In portions of south-central and southwestern Colorado where several inches of precipitation were observed, there were a few fairly broad areas where 2-category improvements were introduced. Elsewhere, dryness and drought did not change significantly enough to support improvements.

West

Light to moderate precipitation was widespread across almost the entire West region, with locally excessive amounts (2 to locally 5 inches) reported in much of northern and eastern New Mexico. Moisture surged northward out of the Four Corners region at times, bringing widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation for much of western Montana.

The driest areas were in the southeastern Montana, and the Desert Southwest, where up to a few tenths of an inch fell. The continued pattern of robust precipitation through most of the West region led to continued improvement to dryness and drought.

The most widespread improvement was noted across New Mexico (where localized flooding was reported. Improvements were also noted in parts of the lower Colorado Valley and portions of central and western Montana. Long-term moisture deficits continue to impact a large part of the region despite the recent uptick in precipitation, so there was not much complete drought removal.

Looking ahead

During the next five days (through Nov. 2), areas of heavy precipitation (1.5 to locally near 4 inches) are expected across central Arizona, the higher elevations of the central Rockies (including parts of Colorado that were inundated this past week), much of the High Plains of Texas, and part of the central Gulf Coast.

Moderate amounts (0.5 to locally approaching 2 inches) are forecast for most of the higher elevations in the Rockies, a swath from the southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains.

A few tenths of an inch with isolated higher amounts are expected across the rest of the United States, with little precipitation anticipated in southeastern Texas. Daily maximum temperatures are forecast to average 4 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit below normal across the central and western Four Corners, the Great Basin, and much of the Desert Southwest.

Meanwhile, most locations from the northern and eastern Great Plains are expecting warmer than normal conditions, with daily highs averaging 5 to 13 degrees above normal.

During Nov. 3 to 7, above-normal precipitation is at least marginally favored over most of the contiguous U.S. The northern tiers of the western U.S. are the only exceptions, with drier than normal conditions expected for much of Montana and above-normal temperatures are also expected to dominate the country, with only parts of the Four Corners region expected to average closer to normal temperatures.

Richard Tinker is with CPC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP.