Drought likely to persist this summer, despite short term improvements in the region
The most recent Drought Status Update for the Southern Plains region was issued May 23 and dry conditions are expected to persist.
A partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and others across the Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System, issued the update.
According to a news release, the purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. The National Integrated Drought Information System and its partners will issue future updates as conditions evolve.
Experts are seeing exceptional drought persist along the Rio Grande and into the Texas Hill Country. Northern and central Oklahoma, although they’ve recorded a 3-class drought improvement since April 15, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, there’s still concern. April was the third wettest April on record for Oklahoma.
Seasonal outlooks favor drought persistence and expansion, and high summer temperatures may mean recent improvements are short-lived. The U.S. Drought Monitor change map shows where drought has improved, remained the same, or worsened in the Southern Plains from April 15 to May 20. Yellow/orange hues on the map show areas where drought worsened, while green hues show drought improvement.
April was exceptionally wet across Oklahoma and northern Texas. A series of storms, especially a deluge with flash flooding from April 29 to May 2, made a big dent in lingering drought conditions. Within that week, most of Oklahoma east of the Panhandle measured more than 4 inches of rainfall.
Seasonal outlook
Forecaster Anthony Artusa said in the latest seasonal assessment from the Climate Prediction Center for June-July-August factors favor widespread improvement and even removal of drought conditions over the eastern contiguous U.S.
In the High Plains and Midwest, drought persistence is favored, and new drought development is favored. Monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks are generally favoring elevated odds of warmer-than-normal summer temperatures, and either drier-than-normal conditions or equal chances.
“In the absence of a strong wet signal at monthly and seasonal timescales, drought persistence is considered the most likely scenario,” the report stated. “In the western and southern regions, odds strongly favor drought persistence.”
According to the report, one possible exception is the monsoon region of the Southwest, which normally starts to ramp up near the start of July. The CPC’s seasonal precipitation outlook shows a weak tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona. However, dynamical and statistical models provide conflicting and generally weak indications that are unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.
The next Seasonal Drought Outlook will be issued June 19.
Kylene Scott can be reached at 620-227-1804 or [email protected].
