Extreme weather added drought pressure to High Plains
This week, extreme weather events across the United States painted a starkly contrasting picture of drought development and relief.
In the West and Plains, a persistent heat dome drove temperatures 20 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, shattering early-season records and significantly increasing evaporative demand.
This intense heat, combined with high winds and pre-existing dryness, threatened to rapidly deplete topsoil moisture and fueled explosive, landscape-altering wildfires—most notably the historic Morrill Fire in Nebraska that consumed more than 800,000 acres.
Ultimately, the combination of soaring temperatures and below-normal precipitation resulted in the expansion of drought and abnormal dryness across portions of the West, Great Plains, and parts of the Southeast.
Conversely, other regions experienced abrupt and volatile moisture influxes that mitigated dry conditions but introduced localized to severe flooding. In the Pacific Northwest, an atmospheric river stalled over Washington, bringing heavy rain and significant snowmelt.
Further east, a powerful winter storm delivered a massive precipitation boost in the form of a late-season blizzard, dropping over 50 inches of snow across parts of the upper Midwest and Michigan’s upper Peninsula. Overall, above-normal precipitation resulted in improvements to drought and abnormal dryness across parts of the Midwest.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)
South
Hot and dry conditions dominated the South, driving widespread drought degradation. Temperatures soared 5 to 20 degrees above normal across much of the region. This heat was coupled with persistent dryness, as month-to-date rainfall deficits grew to 1 to 3 inches below average (representing only 5% to 50% of normal).
Deteriorating short- and long-term indicators justified the introduction and expansion of exceptional drought in southern Texas and northern Arkansas. Extreme drought was introduced in the Oklahoma Panhandle and expanded across central Oklahoma, northern Arkansas and southern Texas.
Additionally, severe drought worsened across parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas while moderate drought and abnormal dryness expanded in Texas.
Midwest
Unseasonable warmth enveloped most of the Midwest, with temperature departures ranging from 5 to 20 degrees above normal; the greatest anomalies were centered over western Illinois and southern Missouri. Conversely, parts of Minnesota observed below-normal temperatures.
Precipitation was highly variable: Northern areas (including Minnesota) received 0.5 inches or more, with some locations seeing 150% to 300% of normal weekly rainfall. Growing deficits and degrading conditions in the southern areas led to the expansion of moderate drought in parts of Iowa and Missouri.
High Plains
Intense, unseasonable warmth gripped the High Plains, with temperatures soaring up to 25 degrees above normal, peaking in parts of Wyoming and Colorado.
Precipitation was nearly non-existent, particularly across the southern half of the region. This severe, persistent dryness, coupled with rapidly deteriorating drought indicators, forced widespread expansion and intensification of drought categories.
Exceptional drought expanded in northwest Colorado, while extreme drought grew across Colorado, southern Wyoming, and southern Nebraska. Severe drought pushed further into central and northern Wyoming, western and southern Colorado, and advanced from Nebraska into South Dakota.
Moderate drought and abnormal dryness also expanded broadly across Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. No drought improvements were made in the High Plains.
West
Anomalous warmth dominated the West, with nearly the much region seeing temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Precipitation was largely absent, save for beneficial moisture in parts of Montana.
This localized precipitation allowed for the reduction of severe drought in central Montana. Elsewhere, the combination of soaring temperatures, lacking precipitation, and declining soil moisture and streamflow data resulted in broad drought degradation. Extreme drought expanded in northwest New Mexico. Severe drought increased in coverage across southern Montana and New Mexico.
Looking ahead
Over the next five days (March 24 to 28), the contiguous United States is forecast to experience another week of widespread, record-breaking warmth.
A strong upper-level ridge will dominate the western and central U.S., pushing temperatures 20 to 40 degrees above average. This extreme heat, combined with dry conditions and gusty downsloping winds, will elevate fire weather risks across the High Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a deepening low-pressure system will bring even stronger winds to the Northern Rockies. Concurrently, a potent mid-latitude cyclone will track from the Pacific Northwest toward the Canadian Maritimes. This system will initially drop moderate to heavy rain over the Northwest—potentially triggering isolated flooding—alongside high-elevation snow in the Olympics and Cascades.
After weakening over the central U.S., the system is expected to reinvigorate over the East by late next week, delivering a mix of rain to the south and snow to the north across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6– to10-day outlook (valid March 29 to April 2) favors above-normal precipitation across much of the contiguous U.S. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are increased across the vast majority of the lower 48 states.
Rocky Bilotta is with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and National Centers for Environmental Information.
