USMCA up for review, but will Trump nix the agreement?

A broad cross section of United States agricultural interests might not agree on much, but they recently testified that the U.S., Mexico and Canada Agreement, which went into effect on July 1, 2020, has been largely beneficial for farmers, ranchers and foresters.

The challenge, they say, is to find ways to improve the trade deal without tossing it out entirely.

But the same day as the hearing, President Donald Trump indicated he may have other plans, contrary to the benefits outlined by the ag community.

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-PA, kicked off the hearing with a summary of why USMCA “is so important to the U.S. ag industry” and kept food prices lower for consumers.  Some of his highlights:

• Economic models show that in 2024 alone, agricultural and seafood exports to Canada and Mexico generated $149 billion in total economic contribution to the U.S. economy, supporting nearly half a million American jobs and generating $36 billion in wages.

Mexico and Canada have collectively purchased more than $60 billion in U.S. ag commodities annually, accounting for roughly one-third of all U.S.ag exports.

• Mexico and Canada together account for over 40% of all U.S dairy exports by value, meaning that USMCA remains the most commercially significant trade agreement for the U.S. dairy industry.
• For the U.S. forest products sector, Canada accounts for 39% of imports and Mexico accounts for 24% of the export market.
• For fruits and vegetables, exports from the U.S. to Canada and Mexico reached more than $7 billion in 2024, representing roughly two-thirds of all global U.S. fresh produce exports. Canada and Mexico together accounted for $4 billion in exports in marketing year 2024 for the soybean industry.
• In 2025, U.S. meat and poultry exports exceeded $23 billion, and exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for $8 billion of that total.
• He noted the need for improvements with Canada’s implementation of its dairy commitments and for the U.S. forest industry, changes  the Chapter 10 binational panel review process.
• “Reinforcing and building upon USMCA’s labor requirements, biotechnology provisions, food safety standards, and registration approvals will be paramount,” Thompson said.

Ag groups chime in

Witnesses provided support from their respective sectors, while also highlighting the need for improvement.

“The stronger and more diverse our export markets, the stronger the returns we can deliver back to the farm gate. That is why trade policy matters so deeply to our farmer-owners,” said Michael Lichte, chief insights and optimization officer for Dairy Farmers of America in his prepared testimony.

“Against that backdrop, USMCA remains the most commercially significant trade agreement for the U.S. dairy industry. Mexico and Canada collectively account for over 40% of all U.S. dairy exports by value. Mexico and Canada are by far the top two export destinations for U.S. dairy exports and have been consistently for decades.”

However, he said Canada’s implementation of dairy market access and pricing provisions “has fallen well short of the negotiated intent.” Lichte was testifying on behalf of the National Milk Producers Federation and U.S. Dairy Export Council.

With appropriate enforcement and modernization, the agreement “can continue supporting investment, export growth and economic opportunity for America’s dairy farm families for generations to come,” Lichte said.

Michael Schumpp, senior director of international affairs for the Meat Institute, called USMCA “the world’s gold-standard trade agreement” and urged officials to avoid “a disruptive renegotiation.” He said during the hearing the agreement has “underpinned the growth of an extremely integrated North American meat and livestock industry that’s valued at over $16 billion.”

He said live cattle and hog imports often cross borders between the three nations and said if USMCA were disrupted, it could disrupt those flows.

The committee heard similar positive comments from the American Soybean Association.  Minnesota soybean farmer Jamie Beyer explained, “the trilateral trade relationship between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada offers something that can be challenging to come by in other markets—stability.

“Since NAFTA entered into force, U.S. soy exports to Mexico quadrupled, and exports to Canada doubled. Under USMCA, both markets have continued to grow over time,” she noted in her written testimony.

Trump weighs in

President Trump offered a significantly different view, saying he wasn’t sure whether he would renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement, which is up for reconsideration this year.

“I don’t know that I’m going to renew it,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

“We don’t need anything that Canada has,” Trump said. “We don’t need anything that Mexico has. But they need everything that we have, and they have to treat us better.”

He went on to say that the U.S. should have trade surpluses with both Mexico and Canada, not deficits. He added that he believes USMCA was a “much better deal than NAFTA,” but he added that “it was a great deal for one reason — it gave the right to terminate.”

However, he said of Canada and Mexico, “We’re talking to them. We’ll see if we do something.”

A joint review of the deal will take place next month, where participants will weigh whether to renew it for a 16-year term or meet annually to discuss renewal. 

Editor’s note: Sara Wyant is publisher of Agri-Pulse Communications Inc., www.Agri-Pulse.com.