They tell me the world is comprised of about 7.8 billion folks and we know for sure the only thing we all have in common is that we all require food.
No matter what happens politically, in the next short or long period of time, we know for a fact that we must produce a high quality, safe, affordable supply of food, not only for the domestic consumer but for international consumers as well. If we do a little quick cowboy arithmetic, we calculate that if 331 million people live in the good, ole United States, 96% of those food consumers live somewhere other than here.
I actually started thinking about trade again because the U.S. Meat Export Federation recently shared a bit of good news about Taiwan when they reported that additional restrictions have now been lifted from U.S. beef and pork. There is no longer a 30-month rule on live beef animals and the zero tolerance restriction for ractopamine in pork has been lifted.
So what is the benefit of that? When December data is available, U.S. beef exports to Taiwan could set another new record in 2020. Exports through November were 3% ahead of 2019’s record pace in volume (59,404 metric tons) and down just 1% in value ($509.1 million).
Taiwanese buyers are familiar with the safety and quality of U.S. pork, and demand is expected to gradually rebound. In 2020 (through November), U.S. pork exports to Taiwan were just under 20,000 metric tons (up 25% from 2019) valued at $51.1 million (up 33%), a serious boost to the COVID-plagued rural economy.
This trade news leads me into the real issue that we cannot lose sight of and that is international relationships. Gregg Doud is about to complete his term as the ag negotiator for the office of U.S. Trade Representatives in the Trump administration and he brings a few thoughts forward as we prepare to move on without him.
“Relationships are key. You will notice that the Taiwan officials are very aware of the quality of U.S. products we produce and sell. Truly our niche in the world marketplace is high quality, safe food products for the global consumer. The challenge that, for the most part, is out of our control.” Doud reminds us.
I often hear folks complain that the value of the dollar is too low but the reality is that when that is the case we can be very competitive in marketing our quality products to the world.”
Doud also shares with me that the extreme spikes we are currently seeing in the grain market are setting the challenges for competition in what will be planted in 2021. My friends around the world are feeling the effects of high feed protein prices and that will certainly play a huge role in planting decisions for 2021. Doud expands on that by saying, “In 2021, the competition will be intense with regard to what gets planted on that acre in the high plains. The competition won’t be Brazil or Russia. It will be between grain sorghum, corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton.”
At the end of the day, I am more concerned about the costs I can’t control than the costs I can. Taxes are not going any direction but north. The cost of compliance itself is out of control and who knows where fuel prices will end up. I am confident that I can secure a very good market for the farm products I produce. What is yet to be seen is the cost of getting it done.
This brings me back to Doud who shares with us what may be the greatest challenge we have: the ability to produce something we can sell. He says, “We often take for granted our ability to produce but we shouldn’t. This means we need to have access to the best tech in terms of seed and production techniques. We cannot be our own worst enemy in this regard, (like the Europeans) to produce it we have to make a profit producing it.”
Yes, that is the real question as we head into a very foggy future. We, as American farmers and ranchers, can out produce anybody, but what will our costs be in getting it done and can we make enough money to keep our operations going until we reach less turbulent political times and rebuild all the trade relationships that are walking out of DC?
Editor’s note: Trent Loos is a sixth generation United States farmer, host of the daily radio show, Loos Tales, and founder of Faces of Agriculture, a non-profit organization putting the human element back into the production of food. Get more information at www.LoosTales.com, or email Trent at [email protected].
