US wheat projected to have larger supplies

Journal photo by Dave Bergmeier

The outlook for 2024-25 United States wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports, and higher stocks, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued in May.

Supplies are projected up 6% from 2023-24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 1,858 million bushels, up 3% from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields.

The all-wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels, the report noted. The first 2024 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,278 million bushels is up 2% from 2023 on increased Hard Red Winter and White Winter production more than offsetting lower Soft Red Winter production.

The total 2024-25 domestic use is projected up 1%, primarily on higher feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, up 55 million from the revised 2023-24 exports, which remain at a 52-year low. Increased U.S. exportable supplies and more competitive prices are expected to result in higher exports. The projected 2024-25 ending stocks are 11% above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years.

Prices, outlook

The projected 2024-25 season-average farm price is $6 per bushel, down $1.10 a bushel from last year’s projected SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.

The global wheat outlook for 2024-25 is for slightly lower supplies, increased consumption, modestly higher trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies are projected to decrease 2.2 million tons to 1,056 million with production projected at a record 798.2 million tons, but lower carry-in stocks for several countries, most notably China and Russia, more than offset higher global production. Increased output for India, China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, and the U.S. is expected to more than offset reductions for Russia, the United Kingdom, the EU, and Ukraine.

The projected 2024-25 world consumption is raised 2 million tons to a record 802.4 million as food, seed, and industrial use is expected to continue growing. Meanwhile feed and residual use is projected lower as feed grains are anticipated to be more competitively priced than wheat. India is the largest FSI increase while China is the largest feed and residual reduction.

Global trade projection

The projected 2024-25 global trade is 216 million tons, up 0.4 million from last year but below the 2022-23 record of 220.7 million. Russia is projected to remain the leading 2024-25 world wheat exporter at 52 million tons, though down from 2023-24. Exports are projected higher for Australia, Argentina, the U.S., Kazakhstan, and Canada, but lower for Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey.

The projected 2024-25 world ending stocks are 4.2 million tons, down from last year at 253.6 million tons, the lowest since 2015-16. Russia and the EU account for the largest reductions, which are partially offset by increases for the U.S. and India.