Another week with isolated precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. brought a mixture of degradations and some smaller areas of improvement.
The Midwest, Northeast and Southeast generally saw one-category degradations near existing abnormally dry or drought areas. There was some improvement from Texas to West Virginia and northeastern Kansas into northwestern Illinois, which followed a band of beneficial precipitation. The northern intermountain West saw minor improvements with isolated precipitation and decent snow (snow water equivalent).
Washington saw some improvement along the eastern Cascades while abnormally dry conditions expanded southward into northwest Oregon. The Southwest and southern Plains saw extensive degradation. Another week with no precipitation continues drying out the region, with alarmingly low streamflows in some areas and high fire danger from south California into southern New Mexico.
Many mountainous regions of the Southwest and into Utah and Colorado are showing abnormally low snowpack, leading to degradation in these areas.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)
South
Above-normal temperatures and the absence of precipitation led to widespread degradations across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, along the Red River and in central Oklahoma.
A week ago, a band of heavy rainfall fell, leading to improvements in central Texas, along the eastern edge of the Oklahoma-Texas border, along the Red River, and up into central and northern Tennessee.
Midwest
The Midwest was warmer than usual, with Iowa and surrounding states being 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Precipitation was isolated this week with a band of rainfall from northwest Missouri, southern Iowa and northwest Illinois, resulting in one-category improvement in western Missouri, southwest Iowa, and along the Mississippi River of eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois.
Unfortunately, this precipitation provided little relief as short-term precipitation, soil moisture, and, in some cases, streamflow remained below the 30th percentile. Central Iowa and southern Minnesota also saw the further expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought.
High Plains
Like much of the central part of the country, the High Plains were 5 to 10 degrees warmer than usual.
Little precipitation led to minor improvements in southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas and along the Wyoming Rockies. Due to prolonged dryness, South Dakota saw the expansion of severe drought in the north-central eastward and extreme drought in the southwest.
West
The Northwest saw below-normal temperatures while the rest of the Western states were near or above normal. The intermountain West saw temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Precipitation fell along the western coast from Washington to northern California, central Idaho, and higher elevations in Montana and Wyoming.
This precipitation, along with good snow water equivalents, aided dry and drought conditions in northern Wyoming and central Montana.
Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded in western Colorado. One-category degradations continued into New Mexico, with abnormal dryness to extreme drought expanding across the state into west Texas.
Looking ahead
Over the next five to seven days, some coastal areas of the West could see precipitation from the Oregon Cascades into northern and central California. Other higher-elevation areas in the intermountain West are also expected to receive some precipitation.
Precipitation chances appear good over the southern Plains and across much of eastern CONUS, with the heaviest expected in the Appalachian region. Areas from northern Louisiana into West Virginia could see 3 to 5 inches of precipitation. Dry conditions will continue in the Southwest and central Plains.
The 6- to 10-day outlook shows the greatest probability of below-normal temperatures is in the northern Plains and across the U.S.-Canadian border. Below-normal temperatures are leaning toward below normal as far south as north Texas.
The best chances of above-normal temperatures will be across the Southeast, with the greatest chance being in the Florida Panhandle.
The greatest chances of above-normal precipitation are in the southern Appalachian region and the West in south Oregon and north California. The best opportunity for below-normal precipitation is in the central and northern Alaska interior.
Lindsay Johnson is with the National Drought Mitigation Center.
