High prices have not hindered consumers as beef imports are up

Memorial Day is an important day to take time to remember those who paid the ultimate sacrifice for freedom. Their bravery and actions are not to be forgotten.

Memorial Day weekend is also the unofficial opening salvo to summer that includes the Indianapolis 500, swimming pools opening across the High Plains and grills are removed from winter storage to be fired up.

While it is hard to believe that grills are stored and used only seasonally, it is not hard to imagine and savor a sizzling steak or juicy burger being grilled. While cattle inventories are not rapidly rebounding due to persistent and pervasive drought or harsh winters, there is an ample supply of beef available all because of record imports.

The wholesale boxed beef cutout price has kept a level above $300 per hundred weight since April 2023. In March of this year, the price of wholesale boxed beef cutout was $323.25 per cwt. Wholesale boxed beef cutout prices are shown in Figure 1.

The lingering high beef prices have incentivized the world’s exporters with available beef to sell into the U.S. market. U.S. buyers have been all too eager to import beef supplies and get those into the U.S. supply chain to the consumer.

Record beef imports buoyed beef supplies to the second highest level in history during 2024

In 2024, U.S. beef production reached 27.1 billion pounds, slightly above 2023 but 500 million pounds below the five-year average. Low domestic cattle inventories have constrained output, though improved production per head has helped offset declines.

Boosted by record imports of 4.6 billion pounds, total beef supplies hit 32.3 billion pounds—the second-highest level on record, just below 2022’s 32.4 billion pounds. These imports have been critical in meeting consumer demand while keeping prices from climbing even higher.

The attraction of high U.S. beef prices has incentivized strong imports, helping defray even higher prices of beef in the U.S. Imports of beef are shown in Figure 2. While imports have ensured ample beef supply, they have also supported a notable shift in consumer behavior.

Beef consumption is at a 15-year high

While the elevated beef prices have boosted imports, they have contributed to higher grocery and restaurant costs, prompting some consumers to seek value cuts or alternatives like poultry.

But despite the higher costs, beef consumption per capita has been slowly climbing, overcoming a head fake in 2023. During 2024 the amount of beef U.S. consumers consumed was a 15-year high at 59.1 pounds per person. The rise to 59.1 pounds per person reflects not only a love for beef but also its prominence in summer barbecues and dining traditions.

Beef consumption bottomed at a record low of 54 pounds per person during 2015. Over the past five years beef consumption has grown an average of 0.5% per year, 0.9% per year over the past 10 years.

Despite the growth in beef consumption, the trend has been in a long-term decline since the mid-1970s. There has been periodic stability in beef consumption trends only to turn lower later. Since 2000 beef consumption has fallen an average of -0.5% per year. Looking ahead, sustained soaring prices and import reliance may stabilize beef consumption, but resolving challenges like drought and slaughter capacity will be critical to long-term growth.

Looking at per capita beef consumption as shown in Figure 2, there have been three periods that beef consumption bottomed out and turned higher. The three periods include 1980 to 1986, 1993 to 2002, and 2015 to the present time. But each rebound found an upper level and reversed course to find a lower level in per capita beef consumption. Could this time be different if beef consumption per person is stable or even keeps running higher? This current period is the highest and longest rebound to date. Only time will tell, but without imports helping bolster supplies prices would be higher with less beef available to the consumer.

The gain in beef consumption may be at the expense of pork. Consumption of pork peaked at 52.1 pounds per person during 2019 and dropped below 50 pounds in 2024. Pork consumption has fallen an average of 0.9% per year over the past five years while averaging 0.9 pounds per year over the past 10 years while averaging -0.2% per year since 2000.

Despite the gain in beef consumption, poultry consumption continues higher at 116.4 pounds per person during 2024, up more than 10 pounds per person since 2015 when beef consumption resumed an upward trajectory after a 9 year pull back and pause. Poultry consumption per person has grown an average of 0.8% per year over the past 5 years, 1.5% over the past 10 years and 0.9% per year since 2000.

Per capita consumption is based on the retail weight of the meat product. The comparison of per capita consumption for beef, pork and poultry is shown in Figure 3.

Despite these market dynamics, challenges in the cattle industry highlight the importance of imports in supporting supply.

Enjoy the beef, it’s summer after all!

The cattle and beef markets inspire many generations of ranchers and butchers alike to raise and provide beef to consumers. However, market challenges are limiting cattle expansion.

The market challenges include low cattle inventories associated with persistent drought and extreme winters. These challenges have forced ranchers to limit herd expansion and thus send smaller numbers of cattle to market..

Cattle being sent to market earlier to take advantage of high market prices, which could lead to a drop in production or pounds of beef per head.

Diet crazes come and go and there is push toward high protein diets but not necessarily oriented toward beef.

Narrowing packer margins have led to plant closures or reduced slaughter capacity, which could constrain future beef production.

The New World screwworm outbreak in Mexico, a parasitic fly that damages livestock, has led the U.S. Department of Agriculture to halt live cattle imports, potentially tightening supply chains.

Despite market challenges like drought, limited cattle inventories, and the New World screwworm outbreak in Mexico, U.S. consumers continue to enjoy abundant beef supplies, thanks to record imports. This Memorial Day weekend, fire up the grill and savor your favorite beef cut—after all, “beef, it’s what’s for dinner!”

Ken Eriksen can be reached at [email protected].