Corn and soybean futures prices have been trading in a relatively lackluster price pattern for much of the month of May.
Heading into the month of June, there are many unanswered questions that surround both production and demand. Because of this, for the moment, corn and soybean prices seem to potentially be in a holding pattern, until more fundamental news is known.
From a marketing perspective
Looking at corn prices, the reality that 95.3 million acres of corn getting planted into United States soil this spring has kept a lid on any triumphant corn rally. That 95.3-million-acre number is up from 90.6 million acres last year.
According to the May 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, using 95.3 million acres (and 87.4 million harvested acres), and a projected record 181-bushel yield, production is pegged at a whopping15.82 billion bushels. Total demand for the 2025-26 crop year is marked at 15.46 billion bushels.
When the carry-in number is applied from the previous year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegs corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop year at 1.8 billion bushels.
The perception of 1.8 billion bushels of corn is a comfortable supply number for the market, and for now, makes it hard for traders to conceive a reason for December 2025 corn futures to trade above $5 a bushel.
However, should there be a weather event in the coming weeks, that might be enough to spur a price rally higher. It is interesting to note that should the yield edge closer to 177 bushels per acre (and all other factors remain the same) then ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop year would drop to 1.45 billion bushels.
Looking at new crop soybean futures, November 2025 soybean futures have been trading in a modest 40 cent trading range since early May. The market is supported by lower U.S. planted acres this spring.
According to the USDA, spring planted acres for soybeans are pegged at 83.5 million acres, down from 87.1 million acres last year. Using the May 2025 WASDE report, the USDA expects yield will be a record 52.5 bushels per acre, which puts ending stocks near 295 million bushels, down from 350 million bushels from the 2024-25 crop year.
Important to note, should yield drop to 50.5 bushels per acre, that would take ending stocks down to 121 million bushels (using demand information from the May 2025 WASDE report).
Fundamentally, the soybean market is supported due to smaller acres and potentially smaller supply in the U.S. Questions still swirl regarding demand for exports due to trade and tariff uncertainty. There are also many questions regarding biofuel demand and mandates, and how that could affect demand for soybeans and soybean oil.
Potentially limiting a major soybean rally, is the reality that global carryout for soybeans remains at a record large number, due to higher production in South America.
Prepare yourself
It is a complex time for corn and soybean prices. Prices are viewed as unattractive for many producers. It is also frustrating as traders seem to be assuming record yields for both corn and soybeans, unless Mother Nature proves otherwise, later this summer.
While there is no guarantee it will happen annually, according to the 5- and 15-year seasonal charts, corn and soybean futures tend to find a summer rally, and price high between Mother’s Day and Father’s Day. If that can occur, be ready to capture that rally by rewarding the market with cash sales for old and new crop. Be vigilant, those rallies can come and go quickly.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly twitter) @naomiblohm.
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