Planting Intentions mirror farmer sentiment
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest Planting Intentions report is showing that farmers realize the challenges they are up against this year.
Wheat acres have continued a downward trend in recent years as it appears this could be the smallest crop since 1919, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Dan O’Brien, an economist at Kansas State University, said the Sunflower State was expected to plant about 7 million acres of wheat, which is down about 300,000 acres from last year. Two years ago, Kansas farmers planted 7.6 million acres.
Farmers are using drought-tolerant genetics that have added corn and soybean acres in recent years. Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 was estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3% or 3.45 million acres from last year, as High Plains Journal writers note.
The soybean planted area for 2026 was estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage was up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states. The largest change in planted acreage by state occurred in Arkansas, where growers said they intend to plant 510,000 additional acres of soybeans, a more than 20% increase over the previous year.
A shift from corn to soybean acres was expected by many analysts who cited continued high input costs, especially fertilizer, exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the war in Iran.
Economists believe one reason there might not have been as a large of shift to soybeans from corn could be that many farmers may have pre-purchased fertilizer before the latest spike in prices brought on by the war that started in late February,
A year ago, soybean producers, expected a tough year because of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies against China, and switched to corn acres. Today, corn continues to see record exports, but prices have yet to rebound. As is the story for all grains, other competitors have had favorable growing conditions and that has made it a buyer’s market.
Soybeans got a dose of good news when the Trump administration announced it was updating the Renewable Fuel Standard and by increasing biomass-based diesel by 2 billion gallons. That will take time to flow through the economic pipelines and get back to farmers.
Producers rightly have been frustrated with prices, but they have shown restraint as Farmer Bridge Assistance program payments were delivered earlier in the year and as they look at an opportunity to benefit from crop insurance revisions that were made as a result of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025. However, those additional monies will not come into effect until fall as they look at another summer with limited upside.
In the meantime, Mother Nature is likely to weigh in at some point on market prices as the High Plains is starting to show drought fatigue. Producers will need to look at limited options in marketing their crops and continue to find niches where they can net a premium.
Congress has also taken note with key ag lawmakers on a bipartisan basis saying that additional monies may need to be appropriated to cover production costs.
There is no reason to believe those concerns will change anytime soon and so the House and Senate needs input from the ag community with a goal to provide greater oversight—on a bipartisan basis—on trade policy and inputs that affect farmers’ bottom lines.
Until then, all producers can do is look at the hand that is dealt to them. The recent Planting Intentions report is a strong indicator of their thoughts before the planters start running at full speed.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
