USDA lowers corn production forecast, raises soybean price outlook  

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2026-27 United States corn production forecast while raising projected soybean production and exports in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. 

The Sept. 11 report forecasts U.S. corn production at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million bushels from August. The reduction reflects a 2.2-bushel-per-acre decline in the projected yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and a fractional decrease in harvested area to 88.5 million acres. 

Projected 2026-27 corn beginning stocks were lowered 23 million bushels, primarily because of a larger 2025-26 export forecast. Total corn use is projected at 16.2 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels, with feed and residual use accounting for the reduction. 

Corn exports remain projected at 3.3 billion bushels despite the lower production forecast. Ending stocks are projected at 1.6 billion bushels, down 86 million from August. The season-average corn price received by producers was raised 30 cents per bushel to $4.80. 

Global coarse grain production is forecast at 1.588 billion metric tons, down 5.1 million tons from August. Foreign corn production is lower for India, Kenya and Russia, partly offset by higher production in the European Union and other countries. 

The USDA also raised its U.S. soybean production forecast to 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from August. Harvested area is projected at 0.1 million acres higher, while the soybean yield rose 0.1 bushel per acre to 52.8 bushels per acre. 

The soybean crush forecast is unchanged, while exports rose 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion. Ending stocks are projected at 310 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from August. 

The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12 per bushel, up 60 cents from August. The soybean meal price rose $30 to $340 per short ton, while the soybean oil price remains at 70 cents per pound. 

Global soybean production is forecast at 442.3 million tons, up 0.1 million tons. Higher production in the U.S. and Canada is partly offset by lower production in India and the European Union. Global soybean exports are raised on higher shipments from the U.S., Canada, Benin, and Ukraine. Ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 124 million. 

The U.S. wheat supply and use balance sheet is unchanged overall for 2026-27, although the USDA made adjustments among wheat classes. White wheat exports were raised 20 million bushels, while hard red winter and hard red spring exports were lowered 15 million and 5 million bushels, respectively. 

The wheat season-average farm price is raised 20 cents per bushel to $6.40, based on prices reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service and expectations for futures and cash prices during the remainder of the marketing year. 

Global wheat supplies are projected at 1.103 billion tons, up 3.5 million tons. Production forecasts are higher for Australia, Canada and Ukraine, while Kazakhstan’s production forecast is reduced. 

Global wheat consumption is raised 0.5 million tons to 826.8 million. World trade is lowered 0.9 million tons to 211.8 million, while projected ending stocks rose 3 million tons to 276.3 million. 

The U.S. rice outlook calls for larger supplies and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 4.6 million hundredweight to 58.4 million based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service Rice Stocks report released Aug. 20. 

All rice production is lowered 0.2 million hundredweight to 158.2 million. Long-grain production is forecast at 103.5 million hundredweight, down 3.2 million, while medium- and short-grain production rises to 54.6 million hundredweight. 

The average all-rice yield is raised 46 pounds per acre to 7,690 pounds. Ending stocks are projected at 40.4 million hundredweight, up 4.4 million from August, but down 31% from the previous year. The all-rice season-average farm price remains at $14.90 per hundredweight. 

Global rice supplies are projected at 736.6 million tons, up 1.2 million. Consumption is lowered 3.2 million tons to 539.6 million, largely because of changes in India. World trade is lowered slightly to 62.6 million tons, while ending stocks rose 4.4 million tons to 197 million. 

For cotton, the USDA lowered its 2026-27 U.S. production, consumption, beginning stocks and ending stocks forecasts. Production was reduced by 3% to 13.2 million bales, with the national average yield also lowered 3% to 776 pounds per harvested acre. 

Projected mill use is lowered to 1.5 million bales as the U.S. textile base continues to contract. Ending stocks are forecast at 3.60 million bales, down 10 percent from August, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling to 26.1 percent from 28.8 percent. 

The projected season-average farm price for upland cotton is raised to 78 cents per pound, compared with 75 cents in August. 

For 2025-26, the U.S. cotton export estimate is raised to 12.30 million bales based on year-end trade data. Ending stocks are lowered to 4.15 million bales, while the estimated season-average farm price rises slightly to 62 cents per pound. 

Global cotton production for 2026-27 is lowered by more than 300,000 bales to 117.3 million. Lower production in the U.S., Turkey and Pakistan more than offsets increases in Brazil, the African Franc Zone and Kazakhstan. 

Global cotton trade is projected to increase by more than 400,000 bales, while ending stocks rise by about 170,000 bales. Global consumption is unchanged. 

The September WASDE also includes higher global cotton imports, consumption, and ending stocks for 2025-26, primarily reflecting updated trade data.