USDA lowers U.S. corn production forecast, raises soybean outlook 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2026-2027 United States corn production forecast and raised its soybean production outlook in its latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. 

Forecasts for wheat, rice, cotton and sugar also showed changes in production, use, trade and ending stocks. The report was released Nov. 10. 

The U.S. corn production forecast declined 141 million bushels from last month to 15.9 billion bushels. The projected yield decreased 1.6 bushels per acre to 179.6 bushels per acre, while harvested area remained unchanged at 88.5 million acres. 

With a smaller crop, USDA reduced projected feed and residual use by 25 million bushels to 6 billion bushels. Exports also declined 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, reflecting sales and shipments to date. 

Corn ending stocks are projected at 1.8 billion bushels. The season-average farm price forecast decreased 10 cents per bushel to $4.60. 

In contrast, U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, up 12 million bushels from last month. Higher yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, and Nebraska accounted for most of the increase, partially offset by lower production forecasts for Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. 

Soybean exports increased 25 million bushels based on larger supplies and the early-season export pace. With slightly higher seed use and unchanged crush, ending stocks declined 15 million bushels to 300 million bushels. 

The season-average soybean price forecast increased 10 cents to $12.10 per bushel. Soybean meal prices remained unchanged at $340 per short ton, while soybean oil prices declined 2 cents to 68 cents per pound. 

For wheat, USDA left total U.S. exports unchanged at 750 million bushels but adjusted forecasts by class. White wheat exports increased on continued strong sales and shipments, supported by competitive prices in Asian markets. Hard red winter wheat exports declined amid continued weak sales and shipments, with exports projected to be the second lowest on record. 

Domestic wheat use decreased 3 million bushels, entirely because of lower food use. The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Flour Milling Products report showed wheat ground for flour declined 2%  year over year during the July-September quarter. 

U.S. wheat ending stocks increased 3 million bushels to 743 million bushels, although they remain 19% below last year. The season-average farm price forecast declined 10 cents to $6.20 per bushel. 

U.S. cotton production is forecast at 13.18 million bales, down 267,000 bales from last month. The national average yield declined 2% to 775 pounds per harvested acre, with the Southwest accounting for 250,000 bales of the production reduction. 

Projected cotton consumption decreased 100,000 bales to 1.4 million bales as mill use through September continued to trail last year’s pace. Ending stocks declined 100,000 bales to 3.7 million, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 27%, compared with 27.5% last month. 

The season-average farm price for upland cotton decreased 1 cent to 76 cents per pound. 

Global numbers 

Globally, wheat supplies are projected to increase 6.4 million metric tons to 1.1104 billion metric tons. Higher production forecasts for Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine contributed to the increase. 

Argentina’s wheat production forecast increased 1.5 million metric tons to 23 million metric tons, while Australia’s increased 1.5 million metric tons to 32.5 million metric tons. Both increases reflect favorable growing conditions as the countries enter harvest. 

Global wheat consumption increased 1.7 million metric tons to 829.6 million metric tons, primarily because of higher feed and residual use in Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. World trade declined 300,000 metric tons to 208.7 million metric tons as lower exports from Russia and Ukraine offset increases from Australia and Argentina. 

Russia’s wheat export forecast decreased 1 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons, while Ukraine’s declined 1 million metric tons to 11.5 million metric tons. USDA cited continued disruptions in the Black Sea region, which have kept shipments below long-term averages despite efforts to use alternative ports and transportation methods. 

Global wheat ending stocks increased 4.8 million metric tons to 280.8 million metric tons. 

Global coarse grain production is projected at 1.589 billion metric tons, with increases in Argentina, Brazil and Australia offset by declines in the United States and South Africa. 

Argentina’s corn production forecast increased 2 million metric tons to 57 million metric tons, reflecting above-average planting progress and indications of expanded acreage. Brazil’s corn production forecast also increased 2 million metric tons to 141 million metric tons on larger first-crop acreage. Brazil’s sorghum production forecast increased 1.5 million metric tons to 8 million metric tons. 

Global coarse grain trade increased 1.5 million metric tons to 255.4 million metric tons, supported by higher barley exports from Australia and larger sorghum shipments from Brazil. Global corn trade declined as lower exports from Ukraine, the United States and India more than offset an increase from Argentina. 

Global coarse grain use decreased to 1.613 billion metric tons, while ending stocks increased 2.9 million metric tons to 316.2 million metric tons. Larger corn inventories in Ukraine and China accounted for most of the increase. 

Global rice supplies increased 700,000 metric tons to 738 million metric tons, reflecting higher beginning stocks in Nigeria, Bangladesh and Thailand, along with increased production in Argentina and Australia. 

Global rice consumption decreased 600,000 metric tons to 538.2 million metric tons, primarily because of lower use in Bangladesh and several African countries. World trade declined 1.1 million metric tons to 60.2 million metric tons, mainly because of reduced exports from India. Ending stocks increased 1.3 million metric tons to 199.8 million metric tons, largely on higher inventories in India. 

Global oilseed production is forecast at 721.9 million metric tons, down 300,000 metric tons from last month. Lower soybean, sunflower seed, peanut and cottonseed production partially offset higher rapeseed output. 

Global soybean production declined 200,000 metric tons to 442.5 million metric tons, primarily because of lower forecasts for Ukraine, South Africa, the European Union, and Mexico. Higher production in the U.S. and Colombia partially offset those reductions. 

Global soybean crush and import demand increased, primarily in Algeria, Colombia, Thailand, and Japan. Export forecasts increased for the U.S. and Argentina but declined for Ukraine, Uruguay and South Africa. Global soybean ending stocks decreased 800,000 metric tons to 123.5 million metric tons, mainly because of lower inventories in the U,S. and Argentina.