The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report noted the impact of avian influenza on the poultry industry since late 2024 into early 2025 but indicated egg prices show some sign of stabilizing.
The USDA’s Egg Markets Overview issued in May noted that supplies were light to moderate on moderate trading. Wholesale prices for national trading of truck-lot quantities of graded, loose, white, large shell eggs increased $0.07 to $3.36 per dozen with a fully steady undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for formula trading of large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers increased $0.02 to $3.74 per dozen with a steady to firm undertone.
In the major Midwest production region, wholesale prices for large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses were unchanged at $3.61 per dozen with a steady undertone while prices paid to producers for large cartoned shell eggs remained at $3.43 per dozen. The California benchmark for large shell eggs declined $0.17 to $4.93 per dozen with a weak undertone.
“Shell egg demand took a sharp downturn over the past week for marketers who have been able to sufficiently rebuild their stocks and for consumers who continue to see little in the way of promotional incentive to purchase beyond week-to-week needs,” the commentary noted. “Supplies have become more available, but spot market offerings remain tight, and an additional outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza last week has created caution among marketers and has helped to firm wholesale market prices, factors that combined, have been keeping grocers from featuring shell eggs in their weekly circulars.”
Price levels to the consumer have eased considerably from early-year highs but remain at levels not yet conducive to more than normal purchase needs as consumers are slow to adjust to what may be the new near-term norm. Prices several months ago were reported at more than $6 a dozen.
An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza was reported in early May in a commercial caged table egg flock in Aurora County, South Dakota. Thus far in 2025, HPAI in commercial table egg layer flocks have resulted in the depopulation of 31.3 million birds. To date, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has confirmed 42 outbreaks in layer flocks in 10 states including Iowa, Missouri and South Dakota. The 31.3 million birds lost included 20.3 million (65%) in conventional caged systems, 11 million (35%) in cage-free systems, and 26,000 organic (0.1%). These losses represent 11.1% of the conventional caged layer flock, 10.8% of the non-organic cage-free flock, and 0.1% of the organic flock on Jan. 1, 2025.
According to USDA reports, the egg production forecast was reduced for 2025 on recent data on layer inventory and egg production with an estimate of 107,481 million dozen eggs. A month ago the annual projection was for 108,154 million eggs.
Egg prices are forecast to be lower in 2026 as the layer flock continues its recovery from avian influenza-related losses. The 2026 price was estimated at 216 cents a dozen. The current projection for 2025 was about 400 cents a dozen, which peaked at 675.3 cents a dozen in the first quarter, but in the second quarter it is projected to drop to 345 cents a dozen.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
