Cattle on Feed notes myriad of challenges

The National Agricultural Statistics Service released the May Cattle on Feed report and as of May 1, the total inventory of cattle and calves on feed in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head reached 11.38 million, down 1.5% from a year ago.

April placements totaled 1.61 million head, 2.6% lower than last year. April cattle marketings totaled 1.83 million head, down 2.5%. All figures were within the range of pre-report expectations, with no major surprises.

Although the report held no surprises, several emerging themes in 2025 are worth highlighting. First, dressed weights continue to provide a buffer against tighter cattle supplies. One of the most notable trends in 2024 was heavier-than-expected dressed weights, averaging 27 pounds above 2023 levels, and breaking from typical seasonal patterns.

As a result, the U.S. Department of Agriculture repeatedly revised its 2024 beef production forecast in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. From January to December, the forecast was raised by 4%, or 925 million pounds.

This isn’t a criticism of anyone’s forecast. What dressed weights did in 2024 was remarkable, and that trend has carried into 2025. So far this year, dressed weights are averaging 875 pounds, 23 pounds heavier than the same period in 2024. As a result, USDA has revised its 2025 beef production forecast upward, narrowing the expected year-over-year decline from 4% in January to just 2% in the most recent WASDE report. Note a 2% decline in beef production is still significant.

A second theme is drought, which remains an ongoing concern with major implications for feeder cattle markets and herd rebuilding efforts. According to the most recent USDA estimates, more than one-quarter of the U.S. cattle inventory is in areas currently experiencing drought conditions.

Nationally, April placements were down 2.6% year over year, though there was notable variation across states. Placements were up 3% in Kansas, flat in Nebraska, and up 2% in Oklahoma, but down 6% in Texas. It’s hard to know how much of this is directly tied to drought, but it’s worth watching closely. May is typically a seasonally high-placement month as feedlots look to reload heading into summer.

The third theme, though not reflected in this month’s report, will appear in the June report: the renewed restriction on cattle imports from Mexico. This action is in response to ongoing concerns about New World screwworm in Mexico and Central America. Trade restrictions were first implemented in November 2024, then lifted in early February, and have now been reinstated.

The most recent suspension will affect feedlot placements in the final weeks of May and will continue to do so until the restriction is lifted. Cattle imports from Mexico are an important source of feeder cattle for U.S. feedlots, accounting for roughly 4% of total placements depending on the year. Given the current cyclical low in domestic cattle supplies, the impacts could be more pronounced.

While this month’s Cattle on Feed report did not reveal any major surprises, there is still plenty to monitor in the months ahead. From a supply standpoint, we have a fairly clear picture of where we are. The more pressing question is when, and under what conditions, herd rebuilding will begin. A good place to look for answers is the Cattle on Feed report.

James Mitchell is an assistant professor and Extension livestock economist at the  University of Arkansas.