Rains fell on northeast Texas and other regions

Heavy rain fell this week across parts of the United States, bringing widespread relief from ongoing drought and abnormal dryness from northeast Texas northeast through the Mid-Atlantic.

Recent rains shifted drought impacts more toward the longer term in some areas. Localized improvements after recent precipitation occurred in parts of southern New York and southern New England and in portions of the central Great Plains.

An assessment of shorter-term conditions in Utah and portions of western Oklahoma and western and southern Texas led to a few improvements. Warm and dry weather occurred this week in the western Great Lakes, especially in far northern Wisconsin, parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula, northern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. These areas saw widespread degradation given this week’s conditions.

Drier areas in central Colorado also saw the expansion of extreme and exceptional drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)

South

Wet weather occurred this week across much of Tennessee, portions of northern Alabama, much of south-central and western Louisiana and portions of eastern and south-central Texas.

The heaviest rains exceeded 5 inches in parts of Texas and Louisiana, while 2-5 inches of rain were common in parts of Tennessee. Temperatures across the region were mostly within 3 degrees of normal, except for the southern Texas Panhandle and western north Texas, where temperatures were commonly 3-6 degrees warmer than normal. Temperatures from 3-6 degrees below normal occurred along the Rio Grande near Del Rio, Texas.

From eastern Texas across southern Louisiana, and in Tennessee and far northeast Arkansas, this week’s rains lessened or locally eliminated precipitation deficits and led to improvements in soil moisture and streamflow.

Conditions were reassessed and improved in parts of western and southwest Texas, adjacent western Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle and in parts of western and northern Arkansas, where recent precipitation has lessened mid-term precipitation deficits and locally improved streamflow and soil moisture.

Midwest

Heavy rains drenched the area from south of St. Louis (in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois) through much of Kentucky. Flash flooding impacted some areas south of St. Louis as a result of the heavy rain, where amounts exceeded 5 inches across a widespread area.

However, these rains also lessened or eliminated precipitation deficits across many areas of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and Kentucky, leading to widespread improvements to the Drought Monitor. More improvement may occur in the coming weeks as the impact of these rains on the water cycle is analyzed further.

For now, the few remaining areas of drought in Missouri and south-central Kentucky are long-term in nature. Farther north, mostly drier weather occurred, with a few exceptions. Heavier rains of 2-4 inches fell in north-central Iowa, leading to localized improvements to ongoing moderate drought and abnormal dryness.

A narrow area of 2-inch rains fell across central Minnesota, though this was not enough to improve drying conditions in this region overall.

In northern parts of Minnesota short-term precipitation deficits grew amid declining soil moisture and streamflow, leading to widespread development or expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought, and a small increase in severe drought coverage in northern Minnesota. Much of the southern half of the Midwest region saw temperatures within 3 degrees of normal, with local exceptions.

 In Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan, temperatures were mostly 3 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal, with northern Minnesota mostly 6 to 9 degrees above normal. Amid the mostly hot and dry weather, fires were also occurring this week in northeast Minnesota..

High Plains

Rains exceeding 2 inches fell this week in northeast South Dakota and from parts of south-central Nebraska southeast through parts of northeast Kansas. Spotty heavy rain, locally in the 1.5- to 2-inch range, fell across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, western Nebraska and southwest South Dakota, as well as a few areas in North Dakota.

These rains led to localized improvements in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and western Nebraska, where soil moisture improved and precipitation deficits decreased in severity. Widespread improvement to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness occurred in northeast South Dakota where the heaviest rains fell there.

In eastern North Dakota, short-term precipitation deficits combined with reduced soil moisture, resulting in widespread expansion of abnormal dryness with a small area of moderate drought. A few areas in north-central and northwest South Dakota had a few degradations where short- and mid-term precipitation deficits and low soil moisture occurred.

Temperatures in the northern portions of the High Plains region, particularly from northwest Nebraska north, were 3 to 9 degrees above normal this week as a heat wave took hold. The impacts of this heat and locally drier weather will be assessed in the coming weeks.

West

Aside from some moisture in southeast Arizona from the North American Monsoon, mostly dry weather occurred in the West this week to the west of the Continental Divide. In southeast Arizona, rains totaling 1 to 2 inches fell, though these were not enough to improve conditions. In southeast New Mexico, conditions were reassessed along with those in western Texas, leading to localized improvements where soil moisture, streamflow and mid-term precipitation deficits have recently improved.

Hot temperatures occurred from Arizona and western New Mexico northward to Montana and Wyoming. Temperatures were 3 to 6 degrees above normal for the week across most of these areas, while northeast Wyoming and south-central and eastern Montana were 6 to 12 degrees warmer than normal. Several cities in southern and eastern Montana set all-time record highs on July 12, including readings of 115 degrees in Miles City and 111 degrees in Billings.

The impacts of this heat wave on ongoing drought conditions will be assessed in the coming weeks. Temperatures along the Pacific Coast were generally within 3 degrees of normal.

Looking ahead

Looking ahead to July 21 to 25, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s forecast favors wetter-than-normal weather in parts of the southwest United States, especially in Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado. The forecast also favors above-normal precipitation from southeast California north through Montana and from the Texas Panhandle to North Dakota, though at lower confidence than in the Four Corners states.

The forecast favors above-normal precipitation across most of the eastern U.S. to the east of the Appalachian Mountains, with the exception of south Florida, where near-normal rainfall is expected.

Below-normal rainfall is slightly favored in Deep South Texas. Above-normal temperatures are favored in the western United States (except for parts of Arizona and New Mexico) and across the South and Southeast regions. The forecast favors near-normal temperatures in the northern Great Plains, while cooler-than-normal temperatures are more likely in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

Curtis Riganti is with the National Drought Mitigation Center.