The heat was on throughout the country
This past week, widespread degradations occurred in the northwest United States, where despite slightly cooler and wetter conditions this week, rapid drying continued to be a problem.
In the central Great Plains and Midwest, scattered heavier rains led to improving drought or dryness conditions in some areas, especially in northern Missouri and Iowa. Meanwhile, others who missed out on the heavier rains saw degrading conditions amid hotter-than-normal temperatures.
A mix of improvements and degradations occurred in Texas following heavier rains last week in the south-central part of the state. Still, drier weather occurred in the Midland-Odessa area. Localized improvements occurred in areas of heavy rainfall on the eastern plains of New Mexico. Any rain that fell from mid-Tuesday morning onward will be considered in next week’s map.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. (Map courtesy of NDMC.)
Midwest
Despite very hot weather in most of the region, widespread improvement occurred in northern Missouri, Iowa and northeast Minnesota after heavy rains improved soil moisture conditions and tempered precipitation deficits.
From northwest Missouri to southern Wisconsin, rainfall amounts were locally in excess of 5 inches. In the Kansas City, Missouri, regionabnormal dryness grew in coverage as soil moisture and streamflow dropped amid growing short-term precipitation deficits.
South
Temperatures across the South region ranged from near-normal to 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal in most of the region. Heavy rains fell in parts of central and northern Oklahoma, northeast Arkansas, and the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Most of central and south-central Texas had drier weather. Despite the dry weather there, some improvements to the Drought Monitor occurred in south-central Texas as the impact of recent heavy rains continued to be evaluated.
A small increase in abnormal dryness and moderate drought occurred in the Midland-Odessa area due to growing short-term precipitation deficits and decreasing soil moisture and streamflow. Outside of Texas, the rest of the South remained free of drought or abnormal dryness.
High Plains
In Nebraska and Kansas, scattered heavy rains fell in parts of both states, especially in central and eastern areas, leading to localized improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness. In some areas that missed heavier rains, temperatures ranging from 4 to 8 degrees hotter than normal led to degrading conditions, as streamflow and soil moisture levels dropped.
Long-term drought over the last few years has continued to take a toll on trees in eastern Nebraska, as the bur oak, elm, hackberry, ash and red oak populations saw increased mortality or significant loss in canopy. Short- and long-term precipitation deficits continued to grow in parts of northern Colorado, which along with drops in soil moisture and streamflow led to localized worsening of drought or abnormal dryness.
Meanwhile, heavier rains in the last couple of weeks in southeast Wyoming led to improving conditions there. The western half of Wyoming, in contrast, has continued to see rapid drying, leading to poor vegetation health and locally decreasing streamflow and soil moisture. Moderate and severe drought grew in coverage in parts of southwest Wyoming, while abnormal dryness grew in coverage northeast of Yellowstone National Park.
West
Despite the cooler weather this week, the drying trend continued across much of the Northwest states, with abnormal dryness and moderate and severe drought significantly growing in coverage in far western Montana. In these areas, short-term precipitation deficits are growing, streamflow is lower in spots, vegetation is struggling and soil moisture deficits are developing.
Near the end of the week, scattered heavy rains fell in the eastern plains of New Mexico, leading to localized improvements in drought and abnormal dryness. The impact of these rains on the rest of the water cycle, as well as any further rain, will be further evaluated next week.
Looking ahead
The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast through June 30 shows mostly dry weather in the West, especially for areas west of the Continental Divide.
Drier weather is also expected in western North Dakota and Montana, most of Texas and Arkansas. Rainfall in excess of 1 inch is forecast in parts of eastern Kansas and Nebraska, the eastern Dakotas and the eastern half of the Gulf Coast.
For July 1 to 5, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center outlook favors above-normal precipitation across most of the contiguous United States. The highest confidence for above-normal precipitation during this period is centered on New Mexico, southwest Texas and Colorado as monsoonal moisture streams into the region. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are favored in New Mexico, western Texas and southern Colorado, while near-normal temperatures are favored from the central Great Plains into the Great Lakes.
Within the contiguous U.S., warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored elsewhere, with the highest confidence for this residing in the western Gulf Coast.
Curtis Riganti is with the National Drought Mitigation Center.
