Grain futures prices have been supported in 2026 thanks to strong demand in the form of exports and biofuels.
December 2026 corn futures prices have rallied more than 50 cents since January. November 2026 soybean futures prices have rallied nearly $1 per bushel since January. July 2026 Chicago wheat futures have rallied just over $1 per bushel since January.
But what will happen during May? Can the rally continue? Be ready for more volatility ahead. Here are five important fundamentals to monitor.
From a marketing perspective
First, keep an eye on the upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report scheduled for May 12. This report may have some modest tweaks on the demand side for United States grains for the 2025-2026 crop year. This report will also show the first supply and demand estimates for the 2026-2027 crop year. Traders will also be monitoring the updated size of the corn and soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina.
The second item to watch is continued geopolitical tensions. How is the conflict with Iran evolving, and what will be the effect on crude oil prices? Sometimes, when crude oil futures rally, grain prices rally, too, and vice versa. How will the conflict in the Middle East affect fertilizer prices?
The geopolitical realm spills into other parts of the world. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing on May 14 and 15. Topics will likely include the Middle East and various tariff and trade issues.
Don’t forget to also keep watch of the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, as that pertains to grain movement throughout the Black Sea region and potential wheat disruptions either for production or transportation in that region.
The third item on the watch list is to be aware of the seasonal tendencies for corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat during May. While past performance is not indicative of future results, there is a tendency for a seasonal price peak for corn at some point during May. Will that occur this year?
No. 4 on the watch list is to monitor fund traders. Who are “the funds”? They are traders who represent large investment money trading in commodities. Fund managers watch and monitor grain market fundamentals and technical chart aspects as they look for opportunities to invest and make money.
When they are long (buyers) in the grain market, prices tend to trade higher, and there are usually underlying friendly fundamental components supporting grain prices. When funds are short (sellers) in the market, it is often due to grain supply and demand fundamentals shifting to bearish.
The good news is that their actions can be monitored. Every week, the government requires funds to disclose the number of positions they bought or sold during the week. From there, it is possible to track whether they are amassing a long or short position in the market.
Finally, keep an eye on the weather. Planting conditions for the United States will be paramount in the coming weeks. Also, the second-crop corn in Brazil will be pollinating in May, and traders will be monitoring that closely.
Prepare yourself
The market will have multiple pieces of news to monitor in the coming weeks. How will trade respond to the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia?
Which way will the pieces of news ultimately fall and tip the price scale? Will prices rise due to demand? Will there be a friendly or bearish surprise coming out of the May USDA WASDE report? Will Mother Nature have a trick up her sleeve?
Or might a disruption in global economics, war negotiations or geopolitics push prices lower?
My advice: Make a strategy that allows your farm to be prepared for either scenario. Don’t wait and see. Be ready to act on opportunity.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at [email protected] or find her on X (formerly Twitter) @naomiblohm.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves, or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. Total Farm Marketing refers to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc. and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. A customer may have relationships with any of the three companies.
