WASDE report forecasts tighter crop supplies, higher prices for 2026-27
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 12, estimates project tighter supplies and higher prices for several major commodities in the 2026-27 marketing year, driven by lower production for crops including wheat, corn, rice and cotton.
In the report, USDA said U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million bushels from 2025-26 because of lower harvested area and yields. Ending stocks are projected to fall 18 percent to 762 million bushels, while the season-average farm price is forecast at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from the previous year.
Global wheat production is projected at 819.1 million metric tons, down from a record 843.8 million, with declines among major exporters including the United States, the European Union, Argentina and Australia.
For corn, USDA projected a 2026-27 U.S. crop of 16 billion bushels, down 6 percent from a year earlier. Lower acreage and yields are expected to reduce total supplies and push ending stocks down to 12.1 percent of use. The season-average farm price is forecast at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents.
World corn ending stocks are forecast to decline to 277.5 million metric tons, which USDA said would be the lowest since the 2013-14 marketing year if realized.
The agency also forecast lower U.S. rice supplies and production. Rice production is projected at 175.2 million hundredweight, down 15 percent from the previous year due to lower harvested area. The average farm price is forecast at $13.50 per hundredweight, compared with $12.10 in 2025-26.
USDA projected higher soybean production and stronger domestic crush demand for 2026-27. The soybean crop is forecast at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million bushels from the prior year. Soybean crush is projected at 2.75 billion bushels, supported by demand for soybean oil used in biofuels.
The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.40 per bushel, up from $10.40 in 2025-26. Soybean oil prices are projected at 70 cents per pound, up 7 cents.
In cotton, USDA forecast U.S. production at 13.3 million bales, down 600,000 bales from 2025-26. Exports are expected to rise to 12.3 million bales, while ending stocks are forecast lower at 3.9 million bales. The projected season-average price is 73 cents per pound.
The report noted that forecasts remain tentative because planting is still underway in parts of the Northern Hemisphere and has not yet begun in much of the Southern Hemisphere.
For the complete WASDE report visit www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0526.pdf.
