Avian flu continues to impact egg and poultry production
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’ report indicated broiler production was raised, but egg and turkey production was lowered.
Egg production was lowered on recent data inventory data as well as discoveries of highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial laying flocks.
Egg production on an annual basis was estimated at 8,649 million dozen eggs, which was a reduction from 8,795 million dozen eggs from just a month ago.
The egg price forecast for 2025 was lowered slightly for the third quarter based on recent prices, but the price forecast for 2026 was unchanged. The egg price for the third quarter was set at 285 cents a dozen. On an annual basis it was estimated at 405 cents a dozen and a month ago the estimate was 406.3 cents a dozen. In 2026, on an annual basis WASDE estimated the price to be 216 cents a dozen.
Broiler production on an annual basis in June was estimated at 47,580 million pounds, which was slightly up from May’s projection. Broilers estimated at 133.7 cents a pound, which was up slightly from May’s target. Turkey production was estimated at 4,806 million pounds, which was down slightly from a month ago. The price estimate was at 116 cents a pound, which was up 9 cents a pound from May.
The 2025 broiler export forecast was raised based on recent trade data indicating higher shipments in the second quarter. The broiler export forecast for 2026 was unchanged. The turkey export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are lowered as higher United States prices are expected to make reports less competitive in destination markets.
Broiler price forecasts were raised for the second half of 2025 and into 2026, supported by higher prices of competing proteins. The price estimate for the second half of 2025 and first quarter of 2026 was estimated 134 cents a pound.
Turkey price forecasts were also raised for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength. The price was estimated 126 to 127 cents a pound the second half of 2025 and 115 cents a pound in the first quarter of 2026.
The WASDE report was issued June 12 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The latest Egg Markets Overview, released by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service on June 6, noted that avian influenza has been a persistent challenge to egg production.
“Losses of table egg layers in U.S. flocks from highly pathogenic avian influenza numbers over 36 million, or about 5% of the flock size on Jan. 1 and this was following the loss of 40 million birds in 2024—half of the final quarter of that year alone,” the Overview stated. “At current rates, this translates to a 5% deficit in egg production for this week compared to a year ago—a testament to the industry’s resilience given the sheer scope of losses from HPAI over the past two years.”
Wholesale prices for national trading of truck lot quantities of graded, loose, white large eggs increased 11 cents to $2.63 per dozen.
The U.S. has also increased imports of shell and egg products beginning in April, the report stated, primarily from South Korea, Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, and Honduras.
Dave Bergmeier can be reached at 620-227-1822 or [email protected].
